Erzurumspor FK vs Göztepe – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Göztepe at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Erzurumspor FK vs Göztepe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Göztepe travel to to take on Erzurumspor FK. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 November 2026, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Erzurumspor FK stand at 0W 1D 2L from 3 Süper Lig matches — 0.33 PPG. Last five: L L D. They are averaging 0.33 goals per game and conceding 2.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.67 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Erzurumspor FK have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Göztepe — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Göztepe have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Göztepe's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Göztepe — 0.67 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.33). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
Erzurumspor FK in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Göztepe in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Erzurumspor FK 33% versus Göztepe 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Erzurumspor FK 67% | Göztepe 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Erzurumspor FK 1.26 xG and Göztepe 2.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Erzurumspor FK attack 0.700 / defence 1.457 | Göztepe attack 1.180 / defence 1.230. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.217. Erzurumspor FK's attack strength of 0.700 is below the league average — the 1.26 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Göztepe bring a strong defensive rating of 1.230 — this is suppressing Erzurumspor FK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Erzurumspor FK games / 37 Göztepe games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Erzurumspor FK 22% | Draw 21% | Göztepe 57%. Fair-value odds: Erzurumspor FK 4.55 | Draw 4.76 | Göztepe 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Göztepe (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.26 / 2.10) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Göztepe at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.35 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Erzurumspor FK 33% | Göztepe 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Erzurumspor FK vs Göztepe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Nov 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Erzurumspor FK 22% | Draw 21% | Göztepe 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 63% | xG Erzurumspor FK 1.26 / Göztepe 2.10 • Poisson strength factors: Erzurumspor FK attack 0.700 / def 1.457 | Göztepe attack 1.180 / def 1.230 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Göztepe (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Erzurumspor FK xG
Expected Goals
2.10
Göztepe xG
63%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Erzurumspor FK vs Göztepe kick off?
Erzurumspor FK vs Göztepe is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 22 November 2026.
What competition is Erzurumspor FK vs Göztepe part of?
Erzurumspor FK vs Göztepe is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Erzurumspor FK vs Göztepe?
Our statistical model gives Erzurumspor FK a 22% chance of winning, Göztepe a 57% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Göztepe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Erzurumspor FK vs Göztepe?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Erzurumspor FK and Göztepe will score (BTTS).
Will Erzurumspor FK vs Göztepe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Erzurumspor FK and Göztepe?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Erzurumspor FK and Göztepe in?
Erzurumspor FK (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.33 / GA 2.67 | L5 L-L-D. Göztepe (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Erzurumspor FK's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Göztepe's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, Göztepe's attack versus Erzurumspor FK's defence, projects 2.10 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (3/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Göztepe Win
22%
4.44
21%
4.78
57%
1.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
0 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Erzurumspor FK xG
Total xG
3.35
2.10
Göztepe xG
4.44
22%
Home win
4.78
21%
Draw
1.77
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
12%
8.13
28%
3.52
Win to Nil
3%
36.11
16%
6.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 7.3 | 7.7 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 9.2 | 9.7 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Erzurumspor FK vs Göztepe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Erzurumspor FK and Göztepe expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Erzurumspor FK and 2.10 for Göztepe, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Erzurumspor FK vs Göztepe?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 3 outings, Erzurumspor FK have picked up 0.33 PPG on a 0W 1D 2L record — L-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Erzurumspor FK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Göztepe's form line: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games, 0.33 PPG, last five D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Göztepe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Erzurumspor FK on 0.33 PPG, Göztepe on 0.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Erzurumspor FK are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game recently; Göztepe are on 1.67 scored and 2.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Göztepe in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Erzurumspor FK
Early Season
Göztepe
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Erzurumspor FK and Göztepe in coming into this match?
Erzurumspor FK have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 games (0.33 PPG), while Göztepe have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 (0.33 PPG).
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Erzurumspor FK see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Erzurumspor FK 33%, Göztepe 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Erzurumspor FK and 67% for Göztepe. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Erzurumspor FK have failed to score in 67% of games; Göztepe in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Erzurumspor FK home games / Göztepe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Erzurumspor FK play Göztepe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Erzurumspor FK's recent matches and 67% of Göztepe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Erzurumspor FK vs Göztepe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Erzurumspor FK's matches and 67% of Göztepe's.
Do Erzurumspor FK and Göztepe tend to score early?
Erzurumspor FK have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Göztepe in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.