Erzurumspor FK vs Amed – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Amed at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Erzurumspor FK vs Amed encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
plays host to Erzurumspor FK versus Amed in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Sunday 24 January 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Erzurumspor FK's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Erzurumspor FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Erzurumspor FK have posted 3W 0D 2L at — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at . At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Amed have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Amed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Amed have posted 1W 2D 1L from 4 away outings — 1.25 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.25 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Amed arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Erzurumspor FK, 1 for Amed and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2026, ended 0–3 with Amed winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Erzurumspor FK — key trading statistics (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Amed — key trading statistics (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Erzurumspor FK 30% versus Amed 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Erzurumspor FK 50% | Amed 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Erzurumspor FK 1.29 xG and Amed 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Erzurumspor FK attack 0.690 / defence 1.119 | Amed attack 1.003 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.587 / away 1.253. Erzurumspor FK's attack strength of 0.690 is below the league average — the 1.29 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 10 Erzurumspor FK games / 10 Amed games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Erzurumspor FK 34% | Draw 26% | Amed 40%. Fair-value odds: Erzurumspor FK 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Amed 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Amed are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Amed if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Erzurumspor FK 20% | Amed 75%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Erzurumspor FK vs Amed | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Jan 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Erzurumspor FK 34% | Draw 26% | Amed 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Erzurumspor FK 1.29 / Amed 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Erzurumspor FK attack 0.690 / def 1.119 | Amed attack 1.003 / def 1.175 | league avg home 1.587 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Amed (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Erzurumspor FK xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Amed xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Erzurumspor FK vs Amed kick off?
Erzurumspor FK vs Amed is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 24 January 2027.
What competition is Erzurumspor FK vs Amed part of?
Erzurumspor FK vs Amed is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Erzurumspor FK vs Amed?
Our statistical model gives Erzurumspor FK a 34% chance of winning, Amed a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Amed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Erzurumspor FK vs Amed?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Erzurumspor FK and Amed will score (BTTS).
Will Erzurumspor FK vs Amed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Erzurumspor FK and Amed?
Record (1 meetings): Erzurumspor FK 0W | Draws 0 | Amed 1W.
What form are Erzurumspor FK and Amed in?
Erzurumspor FK (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Amed (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Erzurumspor FK's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Amed's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. Flip it around — Amed's attack (1.00x) against Erzurumspor FK's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amed Win
34%
2.91
26%
3.88
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Erzurumspor FK xG
Total xG
2.69
1.41
Amed xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
24%
4.08
28%
3.62
Win to Nil
8%
11.90
11%
9.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.5 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.2 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.9 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Erzurumspor FK vs Amed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Erzurumspor FK and Amed expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Erzurumspor FK and 1.41 for Amed, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Erzurumspor FK vs Amed?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 10 outings, Erzurumspor FK have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 4W 2D 4L record — W-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Erzurumspor FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Amed's form line: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games, 2.30 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W. The sample for Amed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Amed are the form team by 0.90 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Erzurumspor FK.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Erzurumspor FK have posted 2.25 PPG from 4 outings (3W 0D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — Erzurumspor FK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Amed have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.30 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Amed's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Erzurumspor FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Erzurumspor FK are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Amed are on 2.50 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Erzurumspor FK have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games; Amed in 60%.
Defensively: Erzurumspor FK have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Erzurumspor FK
Blended
Amed
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Erzurumspor FK and Amed in coming into this match?
Erzurumspor FK have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 games (1.40 PPG), while Amed have gone 7W 2D 1L in their last 10 (2.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Erzurumspor FK at home or Amed away?
Erzurumspor FK's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Erzurumspor FK at home: 2.25 PPG; Amed away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Erzurumspor FK or Amed been keeping clean sheets recently?
Erzurumspor FK have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Amed in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Erzurumspor FK
0
Draws
1
Amed
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Erzurumspor FK and Amed?
From 1 meetings on record, Erzurumspor FK have won 0, Amed have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Erzurumspor FK and Amed last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Amed 3-0 Erzurumspor FK.
Who has won more matches between Erzurumspor FK and Amed?
Amed have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Erzurumspor FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Amed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Erzurumspor FK 25%, Amed 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Erzurumspor FK) and 75% (Amed).
On the defensive side: Erzurumspor FK keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Erzurumspor FK home games / Amed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Erzurumspor FK play Amed?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Erzurumspor FK's recent matches and 75% of Amed's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Erzurumspor FK vs Amed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Erzurumspor FK's recent games and 75% of Amed's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Erzurumspor FK and Amed tend to score early?
Erzurumspor FK have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Amed in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.