Bodrum FK 2-4 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fenerbahçe at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bodrum FK vs Fenerbahçe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu plays host to Bodrum FK versus Fenerbahçe in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Friday 28 March 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Bodrum FK (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Bodrum FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bodrum FK have posted 4W 3D 3L at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Fenerbahçe have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fenerbahçe's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.10 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Fenerbahçe are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (2.60 vs 1.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Bodrum FK 0W, Fenerbahçe 1W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2024, ended 0–2 with Fenerbahçe winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Bodrum FK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 31% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 15% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 52% of games.
Fenerbahçe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodrum FK 26% versus Fenerbahçe 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bodrum FK 26% | Fenerbahçe 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodrum FK 0.62 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodrum FK attack 0.558 / defence 0.736 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.389 / defence 0.672. League average goals — home 1.644 / away 1.184. Bodrum FK's attack strength of 0.558 is below the league average — the 0.62 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Fenerbahçe's defence strength of 0.672 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Fenerbahçe have an above-average attack strength of 1.389 — the away xG of 1.21 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Bodrum FK's defence rating of 0.736 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 27 Bodrum FK games / 64 Fenerbahçe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodrum FK 18% | Draw 32% | Fenerbahçe 50%. Fair-value odds: Bodrum FK 5.56 | Draw 3.12 | Fenerbahçe 2.00. Fenerbahçe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Bodrum FK's lower xG of 0.62 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fenerbahçe are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.83 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 33% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bodrum FK 20% | Fenerbahçe 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodrum FK vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 28 Mar 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodrum FK 18% | Draw 32% | Fenerbahçe 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 33% | xG Bodrum FK 0.62 / Fenerbahçe 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Bodrum FK attack 0.558 / def 0.736 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.389 / def 0.672 | league avg home 1.644 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.62
Bodrum FK xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Fenerbahçe xG
33%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodrum FK vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Bodrum FK vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 28 March 2025 at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Bodrum FK vs Fenerbahçe?
Bodrum FK 2 - 4 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Bodrum FK vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu.
What competition is Bodrum FK vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Bodrum FK vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Bodrum FK vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Bodrum FK a 18% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 50% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodrum FK vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Bodrum FK and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Bodrum FK vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodrum FK and Fenerbahçe?
Record (1 meetings): Bodrum FK 0W | Draws 0 | Fenerbahçe 1W.
What form are Bodrum FK and Fenerbahçe in?
Bodrum FK (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bodrum FK's attack rating (0.56) and Fenerbahçe's defence rating (0.67), the model arrives at 0.62 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fenerbahçe's attack (1.39x) against Bodrum FK's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 27/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (17.6%), 1-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
18%
5.47
32%
3.15
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
19.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.62
Bodrum FK xG
Total xG
1.83
1.21
Fenerbahçe xG
5.47
18%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.04
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
54%
1.85
Win to Nil
5%
18.37
27%
3.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.1 | 19.5 | 11.8 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.0 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodrum FK vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.9%.
How many goals are Bodrum FK and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 0.62 expected goals for Bodrum FK and 1.21 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodrum FK vs Fenerbahçe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bodrum FK come into this having played 27 games, going 8W 6D 13L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W. The sample for Bodrum FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fenerbahçe sit at 2.41 PPG from 27 outings (20W 5D 2L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fenerbahçe carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.30 PPG clear of Bodrum FK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Bodrum FK's home form reads 5W 3D 5L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Fenerbahçe have taken 2.15 points per game from 13 outings (8W 4D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bodrum FK are averaging 0.74 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.56 scored and 0.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodrum FK have seen both teams score in 26% of their recent games.
Defensively: Bodrum FK have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; Fenerbahçe in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodrum FK
Blended
Fenerbahçe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodrum FK and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Bodrum FK have gone 8W 6D 13L in their last 27 games (1.11 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 20W 5D 2L in their last 27 (2.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodrum FK at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Fenerbahçe's away record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodrum FK at home: 1.38 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 2.15 PPG.
Have Bodrum FK or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodrum FK have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Bodrum FK
0
Draws
2
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodrum FK and Fenerbahçe?
From 2 meetings on record, Bodrum FK have won 0, Fenerbahçe have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bodrum FK and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 28 March 2025, when Bodrum FK 2-4 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Bodrum FK and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bodrum FK see a goal before the break in 31% of their matches.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 23% (Bodrum FK) and 46% (Fenerbahçe) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 15% for Bodrum FK and 54% for Fenerbahçe.
On the defensive side: Bodrum FK keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Fenerbahçe in 46%; Bodrum FK have failed to score in 54% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodrum FK home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodrum FK play Fenerbahçe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 23% of Bodrum FK's recent matches and 46% of Fenerbahçe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bodrum FK vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 15% of Bodrum FK's recent games and 54% of Fenerbahçe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bodrum FK and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Bodrum FK have had a goal before half-time in 31% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fenerbahçe cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Bodrum FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Bodrum FK 2-4 at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu, Regular Season - 29, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodrum FK 0.62 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.21 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Bodrum FK beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fenerbahçe outscored their 1.21 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodrum FK attack 0.56 / defence 0.74 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.39 / defence 0.67, drawn from 27/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodrum FK 18% | Draw 32% | Fenerbahçe 50%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodrum FK 26%, Fenerbahçe 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodrum FK's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 26% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.41 PPG against 1.11. That form edge translated into the three points. Bodrum FK (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.46 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.