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Poisson model rates Samsunspor at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Samsunspor make the trip to Tupras Stadium to face Beşiktaş in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Sunday 23 November 2025 at 14:00 UTC.

Current Form

Beşiktaş's overall Süper Lig record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Beşiktaş's home record at Tupras Stadium: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Samsunspor have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: D W D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Samsunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Samsunspor have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Beşiktaş register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant games, Samsunspor in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Beşiktaş lead 2W to 0W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Jan 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading & In-Play

Beşiktaş — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).

Samsunspor — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 65% versus Samsunspor 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 50% | Samsunspor 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.49 xG and Samsunspor 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.264 / defence 1.174 | Samsunspor attack 1.211 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.279 / away 1.296. Beşiktaş carry an above-average attack strength of 1.264 — their λ of 1.49 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Samsunspor have an above-average attack strength of 1.211 — the away xG of 1.84 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 48 Beşiktaş games / 48 Samsunspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 30% | Draw 26% | Samsunspor 44%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | Samsunspor 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.84) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Samsunspor as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Samsunspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.33 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Beşiktaş 90% | Samsunspor 70% BTTS from recent games.

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