🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Beşiktaş at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beşiktaş vs Eyüpspor encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Eyüpspor travel to Besiktas Park to take on Beşiktaş. The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 August 2026, 17:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Beşiktaş have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Beşiktaş haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

At home at Besiktas Park, Beşiktaş have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Beşiktaş are significantly better at Besiktas Park than their overall form suggests.

Eyüpspor — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Eyüpspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Eyüpspor's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Beşiktaş 1.40 PPG, Eyüpspor 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

Beşiktaş hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 4 previous encounters compared to 0 for Eyüpspor, with 1 draws in between.

The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Jan 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Beşiktaş and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

In-Play Data

Beşiktaş trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

Eyüpspor trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 59% versus Eyüpspor 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 59% | Eyüpspor 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.69 xG and Eyüpspor 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.015 / defence 0.999 | Eyüpspor attack 1.007 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.143. Data: 34 Beşiktaş games / 34 Eyüpspor games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 48% | Draw 28% | Eyüpspor 24%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Eyüpspor 4.17. Beşiktaş hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Beşiktaş as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Beşiktaş 50% | Eyüpspor 60% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights