Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beşiktaş at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Alanyaspor travel to Besiktas Park to take on Beşiktaş. The game is scheduled for Sunday 31 January 2027, 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Beşiktaş have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Beşiktaş have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Beşiktaş's home record at Besiktas Park: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Beşiktaş are significantly better at Besiktas Park than their overall form suggests.
Alanyaspor — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Alanyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Alanyaspor away from home this season: 0W 6D 4L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Beşiktaş 1.40 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Beşiktaş register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Alanyaspor in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 10 previous meetings, Beşiktaş have won 2, Alanyaspor 3, with 5 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2026, ended 0–1 with Alanyaspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Beşiktaş trading profile (37 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Alanyaspor trading profile (37 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 57% versus Alanyaspor 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 57% | Alanyaspor 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 2.03 xG and Alanyaspor 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.358 / defence 0.961 | Alanyaspor attack 0.904 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.218. Beşiktaş carry an above-average attack strength of 1.358 — their λ of 2.03 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 37 Beşiktaş games / 37 Alanyaspor games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 60% | Draw 21% | Alanyaspor 19%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 1.67 | Draw 4.76 | Alanyaspor 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Beşiktaş (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beşiktaş are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.09 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Beşiktaş 60% | Alanyaspor 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Besiktas Park • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Jan 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 60% | Draw 21% | Alanyaspor 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 57% | xG Beşiktaş 2.03 / Alanyaspor 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 1.358 / def 0.961 | Alanyaspor attack 0.904 / def 1.022 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Alanyaspor xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 31 January 2027 at Besiktas Park.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Besiktas Park.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor part of?
Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 60% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 19% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor?
Record (10 meetings): Beşiktaş 2W | Draws 5 | Alanyaspor 3W.
What form are Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Alanyaspor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Beşiktaş's attacking strength (1.36x league average) is weighed against Alanyaspor's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.03. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Beşiktaş's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (37/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
60%
1.67
21%
4.75
19%
5.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
3.09
1.06
Alanyaspor xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.75
21%
Draw
5.22
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
13%
7.60
Win to Nil
21%
4.82
3%
39.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 1.06 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Beşiktaş's recent record stands at 19W 9D 9L from 37 games, a 1.78 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Beşiktaş, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Alanyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 8W 17D 12L across 37 games — 1.11 PPG, with W-L-D-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Alanyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Beşiktaş by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Alanyaspor heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Beşiktaş have managed 11W 4D 4L from 19 games — 1.95 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Alanyaspor's away record stands at 1W 12D 6L across 19 trips, a 0.79 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.19 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Alanyaspor in 62%.
Last 37 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Early Season
Alanyaspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 19W 9D 9L in their last 37 games (1.78 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 8W 17D 12L in their last 37 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Alanyaspor away?
Beşiktaş's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 1.95 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Apr 2022, when Beşiktaş won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Beşiktaş's record when hosting Alanyaspor specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Beşiktaş
5
Draws
3
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 2, Alanyaspor have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Alanyaspor 1-0 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 32% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Beşiktaş at 68%, Alanyaspor at 79%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Beşiktaş) and 47% (Alanyaspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Alanyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Beşiktaş's games and 79% of Alanyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Beşiktaş's matches and 47% of Alanyaspor's.
Do Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.