Başakşehir 4-1 Göztepe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Başakşehir at 50%, yet in-form Göztepe provide a compelling counter-argument — this Başakşehir vs Göztepe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Başakşehir and Göztepe meet at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 30 November 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Başakşehir's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Başakşehir at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Başakşehir are significantly better at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Göztepe (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Göztepe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Göztepe have posted 1W 2D 3L from 6 away outings — 0.83 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.83 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Göztepe are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Başakşehir have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Göztepe in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Başakşehir 0W, Göztepe 2W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Jan 2022, ended 1–2 with Göztepe winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Başakşehir half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Göztepe half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 58% versus Göztepe 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 42% | Göztepe 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.94 xG and Göztepe 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.105 / defence 0.922 | Göztepe attack 1.115 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.524 / away 1.294. Data: 50 Başakşehir games / 12 Göztepe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 50% | Draw 25% | Göztepe 25%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Göztepe 4.00. Başakşehir hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.94 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Başakşehir at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Göztepe (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Başakşehir if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.27 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Başakşehir 60% | Göztepe 67% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Göztepe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Nov 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 50% | Draw 25% | Göztepe 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Başakşehir 1.94 / Göztepe 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.105 / def 0.922 | Göztepe attack 1.115 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.524 / away 1.294 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (50%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Göztepe xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Göztepe kick off?
Başakşehir vs Göztepe kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 30 November 2024 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Göztepe?
Başakşehir 4 - 1 Göztepe.
Where is Başakşehir vs Göztepe being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Göztepe part of?
Başakşehir vs Göztepe is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Göztepe?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 50% chance of winning, Göztepe a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Göztepe?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Başakşehir and Göztepe will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Göztepe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Göztepe?
Record (2 meetings): Başakşehir 0W | Draws 0 | Göztepe 2W.
What form are Başakşehir and Göztepe in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Göztepe (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Başakşehir vs Göztepe?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Başakşehir's attack rating (1.10) and Göztepe's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.94 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Göztepe's attack (1.11x) against Başakşehir's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 50/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
50%
1.99
25%
4.06
25%
3.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
3.27
1.33
Göztepe xG
1.99
50%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
3.99
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
14%
6.93
Win to Nil
13%
7.53
4%
27.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 9.8 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Göztepe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Göztepe expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Başakşehir and 1.33 for Göztepe, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Göztepe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 12 outings, Başakşehir have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 4W 4D 4L record — L-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Göztepe's form line: 6W 3D 3L from 12 games, 1.75 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-W. The sample for Göztepe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Göztepe are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Başakşehir.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Başakşehir have posted 1.80 PPG from 5 outings (2W 3D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Başakşehir are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Göztepe have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.75 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Göztepe's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Başakşehir are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Göztepe are on 1.92 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Blended
Göztepe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Göztepe in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 4W 4D 4L in their last 12 games (1.33 PPG), while Göztepe have gone 6W 3D 3L in their last 12 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Göztepe away?
Başakşehir's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 1.80 PPG; Göztepe away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Göztepe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Göztepe in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Başakşehir won 4-1 on 30 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Başakşehir have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Göztepe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Başakşehir
0
Draws
4
Göztepe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Göztepe?
From 6 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 2, Göztepe have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Göztepe last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Başakşehir 2-1 Göztepe.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Göztepe?
Göztepe have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 80% of those situations.
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Başakşehir, 80% for Göztepe — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Başakşehir) and 60% (Göztepe).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Göztepe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Göztepe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Başakşehir's games and 80% of Göztepe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Başakşehir vs Göztepe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Başakşehir's recent games and 60% of Göztepe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Başakşehir and Göztepe tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Göztepe in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Başakşehir run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Göztepe.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Göztepe 4-1 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 14, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.94 xG and Göztepe 1.33 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Başakşehir beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.10 / defence 0.92 against Göztepe attack 1.11 / defence 1.15, drawn from 50/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 50% | Draw 25% | Göztepe 25%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 42%, Göztepe 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Göztepe's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Göztepe arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.33. Form was overturned, with Başakşehir winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Başakşehir (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.20 average — above their attacking norm. Göztepe (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.