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Poisson model rates Başakşehir at 65%, yet other data sources diverge — this Başakşehir vs Erzurumspor FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Erzurumspor FK travel to Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium to take on Başakşehir. The game is scheduled for Sunday 20 December 2026, 18:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Başakşehir have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Başakşehir haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Başakşehir's home record at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 2.15 xG and Erzurumspor FK 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.171 / defence 0.885 | Erzurumspor FK attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.143. Data: 34 Başakşehir games / 0 Erzurumspor FK games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Başakşehir 65% | Draw 22% | Erzurumspor FK 12%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.54 | Draw 4.55 | Erzurumspor FK 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Başakşehir (65%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Başakşehir as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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