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Poisson rates Başakşehir at 75% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Başakşehir vs Bodrum FK encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 24 as Başakşehir welcome Bodrum FK to Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Saturday 15 February 2025 at 13:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Başakşehir have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Başakşehir have posted 5W 4D 1L at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Bodrum FK — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Bodrum FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Bodrum FK's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

On current form, Başakşehir have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Başakşehir, 0 for Bodrum FK and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2024, ended 1–0 with Başakşehir winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Başakşehir in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Bodrum FK in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 59% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 54% versus Bodrum FK 32%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 54% | Bodrum FK 32%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 2.36 xG and Bodrum FK 0.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.271 / defence 0.802 | Bodrum FK attack 0.650 / defence 1.122. League average goals — home 1.657 / away 1.217. Başakşehir carry an above-average attack strength of 1.271 — their λ of 2.36 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 60 Başakşehir games / 22 Bodrum FK games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Başakşehir 75% | Draw 18% | Bodrum FK 7%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.33 | Draw 5.56 | Bodrum FK 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Başakşehir (75%) — a 68pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Başakşehir are the pick at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Başakşehir 60% | Bodrum FK 30% BTTS from recent games.

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