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Poisson model rates Başakşehir at 65%, yet other data sources diverge — this Başakşehir vs Amed fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Başakşehir host Amed at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 21 February 2027 at 18:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Başakşehir stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Başakşehir haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Başakşehir's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 2.14 xG and Amed 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.170 / defence 0.886 | Amed attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.143. Data: 34 Başakşehir games / 0 Amed games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Başakşehir 65% | Draw 22% | Amed 12%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.54 | Draw 4.55 | Amed 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Başakşehir (65%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Başakşehir at 65% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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