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Poisson model rates Samsunspor at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Samsunspor make the trip to Corendon Airlines Park to face Antalyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Friday 13 February 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Current Form

Antalyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Corendon Airlines Park, Antalyaspor have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Samsunspor have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Samsunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Samsunspor have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for Antalyaspor against 1.00 for Samsunspor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Antalyaspor register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant games, Samsunspor in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Antalyaspor 3W, Samsunspor 2W, 0D.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 2–1 with Antalyaspor winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Antalyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

Samsunspor half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 54% versus Samsunspor 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 54% | Samsunspor 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.17 xG and Samsunspor 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.957 / defence 1.296 | Samsunspor attack 1.025 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.318. Data: 57 Antalyaspor games / 57 Samsunspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 22% | Draw 30% | Samsunspor 48%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 4.55 | Draw 3.33 | Samsunspor 2.08. Samsunspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.17 / 1.75) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Samsunspor are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Samsunspor if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Antalyaspor 90% | Samsunspor 70% BTTS from recent games.

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