🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Antalyaspor at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Samsunspor make the trip to Corendon Airlines Park to face Antalyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Saturday 5 April 2025 at 17:00 UTC.

Current Form

Antalyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home at Corendon Airlines Park, Antalyaspor have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Antalyaspor are significantly better at Corendon Airlines Park than their overall form suggests.

Samsunspor have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Samsunspor have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Antalyaspor against 1.50 for Samsunspor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Antalyaspor 1W, Samsunspor 2W, 0D.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2024, ended 0–2 with Samsunspor winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Antalyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Samsunspor half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 59% versus Samsunspor 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 52% | Samsunspor 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.17 xG and Samsunspor 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.937 / defence 1.002 | Samsunspor attack 0.883 / defence 0.771. League average goals — home 1.617 / away 1.207. Samsunspor's defence strength of 0.771 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 66 Antalyaspor games / 66 Samsunspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 37% | Draw 30% | Samsunspor 32%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Samsunspor 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Antalyaspor are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.24 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Antalyaspor 70% | Samsunspor 30%.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights