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Poisson model rates Antalyaspor at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antalyaspor vs Kocaelispor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Kocaelispor make the trip to Corendon Airlines Park to face Antalyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 34. The match kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 18:00 UTC.

Current Form

Antalyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Antalyaspor's home record at Corendon Airlines Park: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Antalyaspor are significantly better at Corendon Airlines Park than their overall form suggests.

Kocaelispor have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Kocaelispor's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.60 PPG for Antalyaspor against 0.70 for Kocaelispor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Antalyaspor 0W, Kocaelispor 1W, 0D.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Dec 2025, ended 1–2 with Kocaelispor winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Antalyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

Kocaelispor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 52% versus Kocaelispor 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Antalyaspor 52% | Kocaelispor 27%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.31 xG and Kocaelispor 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.868 / defence 1.223 | Kocaelispor attack 0.685 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.535 / away 1.128. Data: 69 Antalyaspor games / 33 Kocaelispor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 42% | Draw 35% | Kocaelispor 24%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 2.38 | Draw 2.86 | Kocaelispor 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Antalyaspor as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Antalyaspor 70% | Kocaelispor 40%.

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