Antalyaspor 2-2 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Fenerbahçe (62%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Antalyaspor face Fenerbahçe.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Corendon Airlines Park plays host to Antalyaspor versus Fenerbahçe in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Sunday 1 March 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Antalyaspor have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Corendon Airlines Park, Antalyaspor have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Fenerbahçe (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: D W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Fenerbahçe have posted 7W 3D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Fenerbahçe arrive in superior form — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Antalyaspor have seen both teams score in 90% of their games, Fenerbahçe in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Fenerbahçe, who have claimed 8 wins from 9 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2025, ended 0–2 with Fenerbahçe winning.
It is worth noting that Fenerbahçe have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 8 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Antalyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Fenerbahçe half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 54% versus Fenerbahçe 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 54% | Fenerbahçe 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.28 xG and Fenerbahçe 2.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 1.077 / defence 1.276 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.596 / defence 0.879. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.245. Fenerbahçe have an above-average attack strength of 1.596 — the away xG of 2.54 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 59 Antalyaspor games / 59 Fenerbahçe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 16% | Draw 22% | Fenerbahçe 62%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 6.25 | Draw 4.55 | Fenerbahçe 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.82. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.82 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.28 / 2.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fenerbahçe at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.82 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Antalyaspor 90% | Fenerbahçe 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Mar 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 16% | Draw 22% | Fenerbahçe 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 69% | xG Antalyaspor 1.28 / Fenerbahçe 2.54 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 1.077 / def 1.276 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.596 / def 0.879 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
2.54
Fenerbahçe xG
69%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 1 March 2026 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Antalyaspor 2 - 2 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Antalyaspor vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 16% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 62% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Antalyaspor and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Fenerbahçe?
Record (9 meetings): Antalyaspor 0W | Draws 1 | Fenerbahçe 8W.
What form are Antalyaspor and Fenerbahçe in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Antalyaspor's attack rating (1.08) and Fenerbahçe's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fenerbahçe's attack (1.60x) against Antalyaspor's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 2.54.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.1%), 1-3 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
16%
6.43
22%
4.54
62%
1.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
7.7%
Away win
0 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
3.82
2.54
Fenerbahçe xG
6.43
16%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
1.60
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.19
Clean Sheet
8%
12.62
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
1%
81.13
17%
5.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 5.6 | 7.1 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.9 |
| 1 | 2.8 | 7.1 | 9.1 | 7.7 | 4.9 | 2.5 |
| 2 | 1.8 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.6 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 2.54 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 3.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Antalyaspor's recent record stands at 18W 13D 28L from 59 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fenerbahçe, meanwhile, have gone 41W 14D 4L across 59 games — 2.32 PPG, with D-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fenerbahçe by 1.18 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Antalyaspor heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Antalyaspor have managed 13W 6D 10L from 29 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.14 PPG overall — Antalyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Fenerbahçe's away record stands at 20W 7D 2L across 29 trips, a 2.31 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.41 scored and 1.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fenerbahçe in 63%.
Last 59 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Blended
Fenerbahçe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 18W 13D 28L in their last 59 games (1.14 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 41W 14D 4L in their last 59 (2.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Fenerbahçe's away record (2.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.55 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 2.31 PPG.
Have Antalyaspor or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antalyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fenerbahçe won 3-0 on 2 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antalyaspor have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fenerbahçe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Antalyaspor
2
Draws
8
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Fenerbahçe?
From 10 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 0, Fenerbahçe have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Antalyaspor 2-2 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 69%, Fenerbahçe 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for Antalyaspor and 62% for Fenerbahçe. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 59% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fenerbahçe in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Fenerbahçe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Antalyaspor's games and 59% of Fenerbahçe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antalyaspor vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Antalyaspor's matches and 62% of Fenerbahçe's.
Do Antalyaspor and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Antalyaspor and Fenerbahçe share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 24, as Antalyaspor and Fenerbahçe drew 2-2 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.28 xG and Fenerbahçe 2.54 xG, a combined 3.82. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 1.08 / defence 1.28 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.60 / defence 0.88, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 16% | Draw 22% | Fenerbahçe 62%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 54%, Fenerbahçe 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.