Antalyaspor 0-4 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Başakşehir at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 10 as Antalyaspor welcome Başakşehir to Corendon Airlines Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 October 2025 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Antalyaspor have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Antalyaspor have posted 5W 2D 3L at Corendon Airlines Park — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Antalyaspor are significantly better at Corendon Airlines Park than their overall form suggests.
Başakşehir — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Başakşehir's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Antalyaspor) versus 0.70 (Başakşehir). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Antalyaspor, 4 for Başakşehir and 2 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Feb 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Antalyaspor in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Başakşehir in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 56% versus Başakşehir 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 56% | Başakşehir 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.18 xG and Başakşehir 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.964 / defence 1.307 | Başakşehir attack 0.809 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.282. Data: 45 Antalyaspor games / 45 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 30% | Draw 32% | Başakşehir 38%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 3.33 | Draw 3.12 | Başakşehir 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Başakşehir as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Başakşehir offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Antalyaspor 70% | Başakşehir 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Oct 2025, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 30% | Draw 32% | Başakşehir 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG Antalyaspor 1.18 / Başakşehir 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 0.964 / def 1.307 | Başakşehir attack 0.809 / def 0.910 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.282 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Başakşehir xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 26 October 2025 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Antalyaspor 0 - 4 Başakşehir.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir part of?
Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 30% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 38% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Antalyaspor and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Başakşehir?
Record (8 meetings): Antalyaspor 2W | Draws 2 | Başakşehir 4W.
What form are Antalyaspor and Başakşehir in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Başakşehir (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Antalyaspor's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Başakşehir's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. The same calculation in reverse, Başakşehir's attack versus Antalyaspor's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
30%
3.34
32%
3.14
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
2.54
1.36
Başakşehir xG
3.34
30%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
8%
12.97
12%
8.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 10.7 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.7 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 1.36 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Antalyaspor's recent record stands at 15W 9D 21L from 45 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Başakşehir, meanwhile, have gone 17W 10D 18L across 45 games — 1.36 PPG, with D-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Antalyaspor on 1.20 PPG, Başakşehir on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Antalyaspor have managed 11W 5D 6L from 22 games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Antalyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Başakşehir's away record stands at 8W 2D 12L across 22 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antalyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.49 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 15W 9D 21L in their last 45 games (1.20 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 17W 10D 18L in their last 45 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Başakşehir away?
Antalyaspor's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.73 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 18 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2025, when Başakşehir won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Antalyaspor's record when hosting Başakşehir specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Antalyaspor
3
Draws
5
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Başakşehir?
From 10 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 2, Başakşehir have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2026, when Başakşehir 0-0 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and Başakşehir?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Antalyaspor see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 64%, Başakşehir 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Antalyaspor) and 54% (Başakşehir). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor have failed to score in 27% of games; Başakşehir in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Başakşehir?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Antalyaspor's games and 50% of Başakşehir's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Antalyaspor's matches and 54% of Başakşehir's.
Do Antalyaspor and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Başakşehir run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Antalyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Antalyaspor 0-4 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 10, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.18 xG and Başakşehir 1.36 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Antalyaspor fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Başakşehir outscored their 1.36 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.96 / defence 1.31 against Başakşehir attack 0.81 / defence 0.91, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 30% | Draw 32% | Başakşehir 38%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 56%, Başakşehir 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Başakşehir's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.20 PPG, Başakşehir 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Başakşehir win broke the near-deadlock. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Başakşehir (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.