🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Antalyaspor at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Alanyaspor travel to Corendon Airlines Park to take on Antalyaspor. The game is scheduled for Friday 28 March 2025, 13:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Antalyaspor have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Antalyaspor's home record at Corendon Airlines Park: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Antalyaspor are significantly better at Corendon Airlines Park than their overall form suggests.

Alanyaspor — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Alanyaspor have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Antalyaspor) versus 1.00 (Alanyaspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

The fixture history tells a clear story: Antalyaspor have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 7 past contests while Alanyaspor have managed just 1 wins.

The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2024, ended 2–1 with Antalyaspor winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Antalyaspor and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading Patterns

Antalyaspor in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Alanyaspor in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 58% versus Alanyaspor 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 51% | Alanyaspor 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.39 xG and Alanyaspor 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.886 / defence 1.007 | Alanyaspor attack 0.720 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.615 / away 1.195. Data: 65 Antalyaspor games / 65 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 49% | Draw 29% | Alanyaspor 23%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Alanyaspor 4.35. Antalyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Antalyaspor as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Antalyaspor 60% | Alanyaspor 50%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights