Antalyaspor 2-1 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Antalyaspor at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Alanyaspor travel to Corendon Airlines Park to take on Antalyaspor. The game is scheduled for Friday 28 March 2025, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Antalyaspor have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Antalyaspor's home record at Corendon Airlines Park: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Antalyaspor are significantly better at Corendon Airlines Park than their overall form suggests.
Alanyaspor — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Alanyaspor have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Antalyaspor) versus 1.00 (Alanyaspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Antalyaspor have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 7 past contests while Alanyaspor have managed just 1 wins.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2024, ended 2–1 with Antalyaspor winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Antalyaspor and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Antalyaspor in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Alanyaspor in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 58% versus Alanyaspor 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 51% | Alanyaspor 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.39 xG and Alanyaspor 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.886 / defence 1.007 | Alanyaspor attack 0.720 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.615 / away 1.195. Data: 65 Antalyaspor games / 65 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 49% | Draw 29% | Alanyaspor 23%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Alanyaspor 4.35. Antalyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Antalyaspor as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Antalyaspor 60% | Alanyaspor 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Friday 28 Mar 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 49% | Draw 29% | Alanyaspor 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Antalyaspor 1.39 / Alanyaspor 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 0.886 / def 1.007 | Alanyaspor attack 0.720 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.615 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Alanyaspor xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 13:00 on Friday 28 March 2025 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Antalyaspor 2 - 1 Alanyaspor.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor part of?
Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 49% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor?
Record (7 meetings): Antalyaspor 4W | Draws 2 | Alanyaspor 1W.
What form are Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Alanyaspor (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Antalyaspor's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Alanyaspor's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Antalyaspor's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
49%
2.06
29%
3.50
23%
4.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
2.26
0.87
Alanyaspor xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
4.37
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
20%
4.90
6%
17.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 9.1 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 12.6 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 8.8 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 0.87 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Antalyaspor's recent record stands at 21W 19D 25L from 65 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Alanyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 20W 23D 22L across 65 games — 1.28 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Antalyaspor on 1.26 PPG, Alanyaspor on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Antalyaspor have managed 15W 11D 6L from 32 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.26 PPG overall — Antalyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Alanyaspor's away record stands at 7W 11D 14L across 32 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antalyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.29 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 21W 19D 25L in their last 65 games (1.26 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 20W 23D 22L in their last 65 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Alanyaspor away?
Antalyaspor's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.75 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Nov 2021, when Antalyaspor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Antalyaspor's record when hosting Alanyaspor specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Antalyaspor
4
Draws
1
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 5, Alanyaspor have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Antalyaspor 0-0 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor?
Antalyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 59%, Alanyaspor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Antalyaspor) and 41% (Alanyaspor).
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor have failed to score in 28% of games; Alanyaspor in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Alanyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Antalyaspor's recent matches and 50% of Alanyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Antalyaspor's recent games and 41% of Alanyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Antalyaspor edge out Alanyaspor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor beat Alanyaspor 2-1 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 29, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.39 xG and Alanyaspor 0.87 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.89 / defence 1.01 against Alanyaspor attack 0.72 / defence 0.97, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 49% | Draw 29% | Alanyaspor 23%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 51%, Alanyaspor 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.26 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antalyaspor win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.