Amed vs Kocaelispor – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Amed at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Amed vs Kocaelispor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kocaelispor make the trip to Diyarbakir Stadium to face Amed in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Sunday 31 January 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Amed have collected 2.12 PPG across 8 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 2D 1L. Last five: D W W D W. They are averaging 2.25 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets in 8 games (38%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Amed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Amed's home record at Diyarbakir Stadium: 5W 0D 0L from 5 Süper Lig appearances (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Diyarbakir Stadium. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.12 — Amed are significantly better at Diyarbakir Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Kocaelispor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Kocaelispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Kocaelispor have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.92 in Amed's favour (2.12 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Amed lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2026, ended 0–2 with Kocaelispor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Amed goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Kocaelispor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amed 50% versus Kocaelispor 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amed 75% | Kocaelispor 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amed 1.95 xG and Kocaelispor 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amed attack 1.356 / defence 0.899 | Kocaelispor attack 0.848 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.574 / away 1.187. Amed carry an above-average attack strength of 1.356 — their λ of 1.95 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 8 Amed games / 42 Kocaelispor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amed 62% | Draw 21% | Kocaelispor 17%. Fair-value odds: Amed 1.61 | Draw 4.76 | Kocaelispor 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Amed (62%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Amed are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. This conflicts with form data: Amed 40% | Kocaelispor 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amed vs Kocaelispor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Diyarbakir Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Jan 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amed 62% | Draw 21% | Kocaelispor 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 51% | xG Amed 1.95 / Kocaelispor 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Amed attack 1.356 / def 0.899 | Kocaelispor attack 0.848 / def 0.916 | league avg home 1.574 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Amed (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Amed xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Kocaelispor xG
51%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amed vs Kocaelispor kick off?
Amed vs Kocaelispor is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 31 January 2027 at Diyarbakir Stadium.
Where is Amed vs Kocaelispor being played?
The match is being played at Diyarbakir Stadium.
What competition is Amed vs Kocaelispor part of?
Amed vs Kocaelispor is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Amed vs Kocaelispor?
Our statistical model gives Amed a 62% chance of winning, Kocaelispor a 17% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Amed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amed vs Kocaelispor?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Amed and Kocaelispor will score (BTTS).
Will Amed vs Kocaelispor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amed and Kocaelispor?
Record (1 meetings): Amed 0W | Draws 0 | Kocaelispor 1W.
What form are Amed and Kocaelispor in?
Amed (all comps): 5W-2D-1L in 8 | 2.12 PPG | GF 2.25 / GA 1.12 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Kocaelispor (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Amed's attack at 1.36x the league average against Kocaelispor's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.95 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Kocaelispor's attack (0.85x) against Amed's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 8/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.9%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amed Win
62%
1.62
21%
4.68
17%
5.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Amed xG
Total xG
2.86
0.91
Kocaelispor xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.68
21%
Draw
5.95
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
14%
7.05
Win to Nil
25%
4.00
2%
41.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.2 | 10.1 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amed vs Kocaelispor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Amed and Kocaelispor expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Amed and 0.91 for Kocaelispor, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Amed vs Kocaelispor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Amed's recent record stands at 5W 2D 1L from 8 games, a 2.12 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Amed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kocaelispor, meanwhile, have gone 4W 0D 4L across 8 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Kocaelispor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Amed by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kocaelispor heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Amed have managed 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — 3.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.12 PPG overall — Amed are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Kocaelispor's away record stands at 1W 0D 3L across 4 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kocaelispor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Amed come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Amed are averaging 2.25 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Kocaelispor are on 1.12 scored and 1.00 conceded. Amed's scoring rate against Kocaelispor's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Amed have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Kocaelispor in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amed
Blended
Kocaelispor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amed and Kocaelispor in coming into this match?
Amed have gone 5W 2D 1L in their last 8 games (2.12 PPG), while Kocaelispor have gone 4W 0D 4L in their last 8 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amed at home or Kocaelispor away?
Amed's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amed at home: 3.00 PPG; Kocaelispor away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Amed or Kocaelispor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amed have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Kocaelispor in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 1 times since August 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 24 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Amed
0
Draws
1
Kocaelispor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amed and Kocaelispor?
From 1 meetings on record, Amed have won 0, Kocaelispor have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Amed and Kocaelispor last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2026, when Kocaelispor 2-0 Amed.
Who has won more matches between Amed and Kocaelispor?
Kocaelispor have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Amed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Kocaelispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amed 50%, Kocaelispor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Amed and 50% for Kocaelispor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Amed keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Kocaelispor in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amed home games / Kocaelispor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amed play Kocaelispor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Amed's recent matches and 50% of Kocaelispor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amed vs Kocaelispor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Amed's matches and 50% of Kocaelispor's.
Do Amed and Kocaelispor tend to score early?
Amed have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Kocaelispor in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.