🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alanyaspor vs Sivasspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

GAIN Park Stadium plays host to Alanyaspor versus Sivasspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off: Saturday 31 May 2025 at 17:00 UTC.

Current Form

Alanyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Alanyaspor's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at GAIN Park Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Alanyaspor are significantly better at GAIN Park Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Sivasspor (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Sivasspor have posted 0W 1D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

Sivasspor hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 7 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Jan 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

It is worth noting that Sivasspor have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading

Alanyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).

Sivasspor half-time and goal-timing data (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 58% versus Sivasspor 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 48% | Sivasspor 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.76 xG and Sivasspor 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.921 / defence 0.976 | Sivasspor attack 0.745 / defence 1.194. League average goals — home 1.602 / away 1.294. Data: 73 Alanyaspor games / 73 Sivasspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 56% | Draw 24% | Sivasspor 20%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Sivasspor 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Alanyaspor (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Alanyaspor at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 60% | Sivasspor 50% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights