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Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Konyaspor travel to GAIN Park Stadium to take on Alanyaspor. The game is scheduled for Friday 3 January 2025, 17:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Alanyaspor — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Alanyaspor at GAIN Park Stadium this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Konyaspor stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Konyaspor have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Alanyaspor 1.20 PPG, Konyaspor 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Alanyaspor register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Konyaspor in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Alanyaspor, 1 for Konyaspor and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2024, ended 2–0 with Alanyaspor winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Alanyaspor trading profile (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).

Konyaspor trading profile (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 56% versus Konyaspor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 46% | Konyaspor 39%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.49 xG and Konyaspor 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.927 / defence 0.889 | Konyaspor attack 0.888 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.632 / away 1.192. Data: 54 Alanyaspor games / 54 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 48% | Draw 30% | Konyaspor 22%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.08 | Draw 3.33 | Konyaspor 4.55. Alanyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Alanyaspor are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Alanyaspor 70% | Konyaspor 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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