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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Alanyaspor take on Kocaelispor.

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Match Analysis

Alanyaspor host Kocaelispor at GAİN Park Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 18 March 2026 at 13:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Alanyaspor — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at GAİN Park Stadyumu, Alanyaspor have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at GAİN Park Stadyumu.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Kocaelispor stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kocaelispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Kocaelispor's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Alanyaspor) versus 1.30 (Kocaelispor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Alanyaspor, 1 for Kocaelispor and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 0–2 with Kocaelispor winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Alanyaspor in-play tendencies (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).

Kocaelispor in-play tendencies (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 62% versus Kocaelispor 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Alanyaspor 46% | Kocaelispor 31%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.08 xG and Kocaelispor 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.826 / defence 1.023 | Kocaelispor attack 0.722 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.337 / away 1.214. Data: 62 Alanyaspor games / 26 Kocaelispor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 36% | Draw 38% | Kocaelispor 26%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.78 | Draw 2.63 | Kocaelispor 3.85. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 26% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

The Poisson model projects 1.98 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 50% | Kocaelispor 40% BTTS from recent games.

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