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Poisson model favours Fenerbahçe (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Alanyaspor face Fenerbahçe.

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Analysis & Preview

A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Fenerbahçe travel to GAIN Park Stadium to take on Alanyaspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 February 2025, 13:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Alanyaspor have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Alanyaspor at GAIN Park Stadium this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Fenerbahçe — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Fenerbahçe have posted 7W 2D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Fenerbahçe are 0.70 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H Record

Fenerbahçe have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 7 encounters against Alanyaspor's 1 victories.

The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2024, ended 0–3 with Fenerbahçe winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Fenerbahçe have won 5 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Data

Alanyaspor trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).

Fenerbahçe trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 56% versus Fenerbahçe 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 48% | Fenerbahçe 68%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.53 xG and Fenerbahçe 2.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.134 / defence 1.114 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.541 / defence 0.784. League average goals — home 1.720 / away 1.267. Fenerbahçe's defence strength of 0.784 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Fenerbahçe have an above-average attack strength of 1.541 — the away xG of 2.17 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 59 Alanyaspor games / 59 Fenerbahçe games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 26% | Draw 23% | Fenerbahçe 51%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 3.85 | Draw 4.35 | Fenerbahçe 1.96. Fenerbahçe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.70. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.70 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 2.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Fenerbahçe as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 3.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.9 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 70% | Fenerbahçe 50% BTTS from recent games.

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