Alanyaspor 0-0 Erzurumspor FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 65%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Alanyaspor host Erzurumspor FK at Alanya Oba Stadium in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 October 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Alanyaspor — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Alanyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Alanya Oba Stadium, Alanyaspor have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Erzurumspor FK have recorded 2W 1D 3L from 6 outings — 1.17 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.83 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 17% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Erzurumspor FK have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Erzurumspor FK away from home this season: 0W 1D 2L from 3 away games — 0.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.33 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 1.17 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Alanyaspor) versus 1.17 (Erzurumspor FK). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Alanyaspor in-play tendencies (6 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Erzurumspor FK in-play tendencies (6 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 67% versus Erzurumspor FK 17%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 50% | Erzurumspor FK 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.94 xG and Erzurumspor FK 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.989 / defence 0.980 | Erzurumspor FK attack 0.673 / defence 1.163. League average goals — home 1.688 / away 1.151. Data: 40 Alanyaspor games / 6 Erzurumspor FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 65% | Draw 21% | Erzurumspor FK 14%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 1.54 | Draw 4.76 | Erzurumspor FK 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Alanyaspor (65%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Alanyaspor as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Alanyaspor 70% | Erzurumspor FK 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Alanya Oba Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 65% | Draw 21% | Erzurumspor FK 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 46% | xG Alanyaspor 1.94 / Erzurumspor FK 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 0.989 / def 0.980 | Erzurumspor FK attack 0.673 / def 1.163 | league avg home 1.688 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Erzurumspor FK xG
46%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Alanya Oba Stadium.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK?
Alanyaspor 0 - 0 Erzurumspor FK.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK being played?
The match is being played at Alanya Oba Stadium.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK part of?
Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 65% chance of winning, Erzurumspor FK a 14% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Alanyaspor and Erzurumspor FK will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Erzurumspor FK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Alanyaspor and Erzurumspor FK in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Erzurumspor FK (all comps): 2W-1D-3L in 6 | 1.17 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.83 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Alanyaspor's attack rating (0.99) and Erzurumspor FK's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Erzurumspor FK's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 1-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
65%
1.53
21%
4.78
14%
7.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.7%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.70
0.76
Erzurumspor FK xG
1.53
65%
Home win
4.78
21%
Draw
7.24
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.20
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
14%
6.97
Win to Nil
31%
3.27
2%
50.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 9.9 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.7 | 9.6 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.2 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Erzurumspor FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 0.76 for Erzurumspor FK, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Alanyaspor's recent record stands at 3W 2D 1L from 6 games, a 1.83 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Alanyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Erzurumspor FK, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 3L across 6 games — 1.17 PPG, with L-D-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Erzurumspor FK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Alanyaspor by 0.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Erzurumspor FK heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Erzurumspor FK are on 0.50 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Alanyaspor have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Erzurumspor FK in 17%.
Last 6 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Early Season
Erzurumspor FK
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Erzurumspor FK in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 3W 2D 1L in their last 6 games (1.83 PPG), while Erzurumspor FK have gone 2W 1D 3L in their last 6 (1.17 PPG).
Have Alanyaspor or Erzurumspor FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alanyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Erzurumspor FK in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Alanyaspor and Erzurumspor FK runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 10 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Alanyaspor
1
Draws
0
Erzurumspor FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Erzurumspor FK?
From 1 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 0, Erzurumspor FK have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Erzurumspor FK last play each other?
They last met on 10 October 2026, when Alanyaspor 0-0 Erzurumspor FK.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Alanyaspor see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Erzurumspor FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 67%, Erzurumspor FK 17% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Alanyaspor) and 50% (Erzurumspor FK).
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Erzurumspor FK in 33%; Erzurumspor FK in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Erzurumspor FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Erzurumspor FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 17% of Erzurumspor FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Alanyaspor's recent games and 50% of Erzurumspor FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alanyaspor and Erzurumspor FK tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Erzurumspor FK in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Alanyaspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Alanya Oba Stadium, Regular Season - 7, as Alanyaspor and Erzurumspor FK drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.94 xG and Erzurumspor FK 0.76 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Alanyaspor fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 0.99 / defence 0.98 against Erzurumspor FK attack 0.67 / defence 1.16, drawn from 40/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 65% | Draw 21% | Erzurumspor FK 14%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 50%, Erzurumspor FK 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Erzurumspor FK's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 17% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Alanyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Alanyaspor managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Erzurumspor FK conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.