Adana Demirspor 1-0 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Adana Demirspor at 66%, yet other data sources diverge — this Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Trabzonspor travel to Yeni Adana Stadyumu to take on Adana Demirspor. The game is scheduled for Friday 6 October 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Adana Demirspor stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Adana Demirspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Adana Demirspor have gone 8W 0D 2L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 3.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Trabzonspor have recorded 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Trabzonspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Trabzonspor's away record: 2W 0D 8L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Adana Demirspor) versus 1.80 (Trabzonspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Adana Demirspor register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Trabzonspor in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Adana Demirspor, 3 for Trabzonspor and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2023, ended 1–4 with Trabzonspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Adana Demirspor in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Trabzonspor in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Adana Demirspor 64% and Trabzonspor 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Adana Demirspor 67% | Trabzonspor 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Adana Demirspor 2.87 xG and Trabzonspor 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Adana Demirspor attack 1.623 / defence 0.900 | Trabzonspor attack 1.227 / defence 1.219. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.281. Adana Demirspor carry an above-average attack strength of 1.623 — their λ of 2.87 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Trabzonspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.219 — this is suppressing Adana Demirspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Trabzonspor have an above-average attack strength of 1.227 — the away xG of 1.42 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 43 Adana Demirspor games / 42 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 66% | Draw 19% | Trabzonspor 15%. Fair-value odds: Adana Demirspor 1.52 | Draw 5.26 | Trabzonspor 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Adana Demirspor (66%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 80% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 4.29. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 80% — a total xG of 4.29 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (2.87 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Adana Demirspor at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 4.29 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 80% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 4.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 73%. Form rates corroborate: Adana Demirspor 60% | Trabzonspor 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 6 Oct 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 66% | Draw 19% | Trabzonspor 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 80% | BTTS 73% | xG Adana Demirspor 2.87 / Trabzonspor 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Adana Demirspor attack 1.623 / def 0.900 | Trabzonspor attack 1.227 / def 1.219 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Adana Demirspor (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.87
Adana Demirspor xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Trabzonspor xG
73%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 6 October 2023 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor?
Adana Demirspor 1 - 0 Trabzonspor.
Where is Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What competition is Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor part of?
Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Adana Demirspor a 66% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 15% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Adana Demirspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Adana Demirspor and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 80%.
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Trabzonspor?
Record (4 meetings): Adana Demirspor 1W | Draws 0 | Trabzonspor 3W.
What form are Adana Demirspor and Trabzonspor in?
Adana Demirspor (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Trabzonspor (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Adana Demirspor's attack at 1.62x the league average against Trabzonspor's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 2.87 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Adana Demirspor's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (7.7%), 1-1 (6.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Adana Demirspor Win
66%
1.52
19%
5.17
15%
6.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.7%
Home win
2 – 0
5.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.87
Adana Demirspor xG
Total xG
4.29
1.42
Trabzonspor xG
1.52
66%
Home win
5.17
19%
Draw
6.75
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
80%
Over 2.5
1.25
20%
Under 2.5
5.00
62%
Over 3.5
1.61
38%
Under 3.5
2.63
43%
Over 4.5
2.33
57%
Under 4.5
1.75
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.72
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
6%
17.64
Win to Nil
16%
6.25
1%
119.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.0 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 7.7 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.0%.
How many goals are Adana Demirspor and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.87 expected goals for Adana Demirspor and 1.42 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 4.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 42 outings, Adana Demirspor have picked up 1.90 PPG on a 23W 11D 8L record — D-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Trabzonspor's form line: 20W 6D 16L from 42 games, 1.57 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Trabzonspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Adana Demirspor on 1.90 PPG, Trabzonspor on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Adana Demirspor have posted 2.30 PPG from 20 outings (14W 4D 2L).
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 5W 2D 13L from 20 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.57 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Trabzonspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Adana Demirspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Adana Demirspor are averaging 2.17 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.81 scored and 1.52 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Adana Demirspor have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Trabzonspor in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Adana Demirspor
Early Season
Trabzonspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Adana Demirspor and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Adana Demirspor have gone 23W 11D 8L in their last 42 games (1.90 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 20W 6D 16L in their last 42 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Adana Demirspor at home or Trabzonspor away?
Adana Demirspor's home record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Adana Demirspor at home: 2.30 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Adana Demirspor or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Adana Demirspor have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Trabzonspor have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Nov 2024, when Trabzonspor won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Adana Demirspor's record when hosting Trabzonspor specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Adana Demirspor
0
Draws
6
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Trabzonspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Adana Demirspor have won 2, Trabzonspor have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Adana Demirspor and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2025, when Adana Demirspor 0-1 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Adana Demirspor and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Adana Demirspor at 60%, Trabzonspor at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Adana Demirspor and 75% for Trabzonspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 55% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Adana Demirspor keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Adana Demirspor home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Adana Demirspor play Trabzonspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Adana Demirspor's games and 75% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Adana Demirspor's matches and 75% of Trabzonspor's.
Do Adana Demirspor and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Adana Demirspor have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Adana Demirspor edge out Trabzonspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Adana Demirspor beat Trabzonspor 1-0 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 8, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 2.87 xG and Trabzonspor 1.42 xG, a combined 4.29. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Adana Demirspor fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Trabzonspor landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 1.62 / defence 0.90 against Trabzonspor attack 1.23 / defence 1.22, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 66% | Draw 19% | Trabzonspor 15%, with Adana Demirspor to win its most likely call at 66%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 80%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 94% and missed. Over 3.5 was 62% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 67%, Trabzonspor 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Adana Demirspor 1.90 PPG, Trabzonspor 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Adana Demirspor win broke the near-deadlock. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.75 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.