Adana Demirspor 3-5 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kasımpaşa at 57% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Kasımpaşa travel to Yeni Adana Stadyumu to take on Adana Demirspor in Süper Lig (matchday 22). The game is scheduled for Sunday 2 February 2025 at 10:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Adana Demirspor stand at 2W 0D 8L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.
At home, Adana Demirspor have gone 1W 0D 9L in their last 10 home games (0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
Kasımpaşa — last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Kasımpaşa's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 6D 1L (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Kasımpaşa are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Adana Demirspor, 3 for Kasımpaşa and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.6 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 25 Aug 2024, ended Adana Demirspor 2–2 Kasımpaşa — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.6 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Adana Demirspor in-play tendencies (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Kasımpaşa in-play tendencies (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Adana Demirspor 59% and Kasımpaşa 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Adana Demirspor 60% | Kasımpaşa 66%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Adana Demirspor surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Kasımpaşa have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 44% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Adana Demirspor 1.19 xG and Kasımpaşa 2.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Adana Demirspor attack 0.632 / defence 1.412 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.227 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.717 / away 1.227. Adana Demirspor's attack rating of 0.632 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.19. Kasımpaşa have an above-average attack rating of 1.227, which lifts their away xG to 2.13. Adana Demirspor's defence rating of 1.412 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Kasımpaşa's projected output up. Data: built from Adana Demirspor's last 58 games and Kasımpaşa's last 58.
Result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 19% | Draw 24% | Kasımpaşa 57%. Fair-value odds: Adana Demirspor 5.30 | Draw 4.18 | Kasımpaşa 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Kasımpaşa (57%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.19 / 2.13) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kasımpaşa are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.31 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Adana Demirspor's last 10 home games and Kasımpaşa's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Adana Demirspor 50% (last 10 home games) | Kasımpaşa 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 22 | Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 2 February 2025 at 10:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 19% | Draw 24% | Kasımpaşa 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Adana Demirspor 1.19 / Kasımpaşa 2.13 • Poisson strength factors: Adana Demirspor attack 0.632 / def 1.412 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.227 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.717 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Adana Demirspor xG
Expected Goals
2.13
Kasımpaşa xG
63%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa FAQs
What time does Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 10:30 UK time on Sunday 2 February 2025 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Adana Demirspor 3 - 5 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What competition is Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 22) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Adana Demirspor a 19% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 57% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Adana Demirspor and Kasımpaşa will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Adana Demirspor's attack at 0.63x the league average against Kasımpaşa's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kasımpaşa's attack versus Adana Demirspor's defence, projects 2.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Adana Demirspor's last 58 games and Kasımpaşa's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
19%
5.30
24%
4.18
57%
1.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
0 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Adana Demirspor xG
Total xG
3.31
2.13
Kasımpaşa xG
5.30
19%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
1.75
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
12%
8.38
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
2%
44.42
17%
5.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Adana Demirspor and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Adana Demirspor and 2.13 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 58 outings, Adana Demirspor have picked up 0.90 PPG on a 12W 16D 30L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Kasımpaşa's form line: 21W 18D 19L from 58 games, 1.40 PPG, last five D-D-L-D-W.
Put side by side, Kasımpaşa are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Adana Demirspor.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Adana Demirspor have posted 1.17 PPG from their last 29 home games (10W 4D 15L).
On the road, Kasımpaşa have gone 10W 10D 9L from their last 29 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Adana Demirspor are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.62 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa in 66%.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Adana Demirspor
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Adana Demirspor (Home) vs Kasımpaşa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Adana Demirspor
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
❓ Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa Form FAQs
What form are Adana Demirspor and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Adana Demirspor have gone 12W 16D 30L in their last 58 games (0.90 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 21W 18D 19L in their last 58 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Adana Demirspor at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Kasımpaşa's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Adana Demirspor at home: 1.17 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 2 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 15 Apr 2023, when Adana Demirspor won Adana Demirspor 5-0 Kasımpaşa.
Adana Demirspor's record when hosting Kasımpaşa specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Adana Demirspor
2
Draws
4
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Kasımpaşa?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Adana Demirspor have won 2, Kasımpaşa have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Adana Demirspor and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 February 2025: Adana Demirspor 3-5 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Adana Demirspor and Kasımpaşa?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 62% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Adana Demirspor 52%, Kasımpaşa 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for Adana Demirspor and 66% for Kasımpaşa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Adana Demirspor have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Adana Demirspor home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Adana Demirspor and Kasımpaşa matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Adana Demirspor's games and 66% of Kasımpaşa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Adana Demirspor and Kasımpaşa matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Adana Demirspor's matches and 66% of Kasımpaşa's.
Do Adana Demirspor and Kasımpaşa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Adana Demirspor's recent matches and 76% of Kasımpaşa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kasımpaşa cruise to a comfortable 3-5 victory over Adana Demirspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa beat Adana Demirspor 3-5 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 22, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 1.19 xG and Kasımpaşa 2.13 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 3-5 for 8 actual goals. Adana Demirspor beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kasımpaşa outscored their 2.13 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 0.63 / defence 1.41 against Kasımpaşa attack 1.23 / defence 1.09, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 19% | Draw 24% | Kasımpaşa 57%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 60%, Kasımpaşa 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Kasımpaşa arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.