Adana Demirspor 0-1 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Başakşehir at 40% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Adana Demirspor vs Başakşehir encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Başakşehir travel to Yeni Adana Stadyumu to take on Adana Demirspor in Süper Lig (matchday 18). The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 January 2025 at 10:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Adana Demirspor — last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Adana Demirspor have gone 1W 0D 9L in their last 10 home games (0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 3.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Başakşehir have recorded 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Başakşehir have posted 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Adana Demirspor 0.70 PPG, Başakşehir 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
Despite the home advantage, Başakşehir have the better record in our head-to-head data — 4 wins from 6 H2H matches against 1 for Adana Demirspor.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.7 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 26 May 2024, ended Adana Demirspor 2–6 Başakşehir — a Başakşehir win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Başakşehir have won 4 of 6 H2H matches, and at 3.7 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Adana Demirspor trading profile (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Başakşehir trading profile (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Adana Demirspor 61% versus Başakşehir 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Adana Demirspor 61% | Başakşehir 44%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Adana Demirspor surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Başakşehir have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Adana Demirspor 1.42 xG and Başakşehir 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Adana Demirspor attack 0.783 / defence 1.416 | Başakşehir attack 0.960 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.634 / away 1.193. Adana Demirspor's attack rating of 0.783 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.42. Adana Demirspor's defence rating of 1.416 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Başakşehir's projected output up. Data: built from Adana Demirspor's last 54 games and Başakşehir's last 54.
Result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 32% | Draw 28% | Başakşehir 40%. Fair-value odds: Adana Demirspor 3.17 | Draw 3.55 | Başakşehir 2.48. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.42 / 1.62) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Başakşehir as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Başakşehir 4 wins from 6 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Başakşehir offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Adana Demirspor's last 10 home games and Başakşehir's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Adana Demirspor 70% (last 10 home games) | Başakşehir 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Adana Demirspor vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 18 | Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 4 January 2025 at 10:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 32% | Draw 28% | Başakşehir 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Adana Demirspor 1.42 / Başakşehir 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Adana Demirspor attack 0.783 / def 1.416 | Başakşehir attack 0.960 / def 1.111 | league avg home 1.634 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Adana Demirspor xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Başakşehir xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Adana Demirspor vs Başakşehir FAQs
What time does Adana Demirspor vs Başakşehir kick off?
Adana Demirspor vs Başakşehir kicked off at 10:30 UK time on Saturday 4 January 2025 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Adana Demirspor vs Başakşehir?
Adana Demirspor 0 - 1 Başakşehir.
Where is Adana Demirspor vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What competition is Adana Demirspor vs Başakşehir part of?
Adana Demirspor vs Başakşehir is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 18) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Adana Demirspor vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Adana Demirspor a 32% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Adana Demirspor vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Adana Demirspor and Başakşehir will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Adana Demirspor vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Adana Demirspor's attack rating (0.78) and Başakşehir's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Başakşehir's attack versus Adana Demirspor's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Adana Demirspor's last 54 games and Başakşehir's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
32%
3.17
28%
3.55
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Adana Demirspor xG
Total xG
3.04
1.62
Başakşehir xG
3.17
32%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
20%
5.06
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
6%
16.04
10%
10.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.7 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.0 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.8 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Adana Demirspor vs Başakşehir Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Adana Demirspor vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Adana Demirspor and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Adana Demirspor and 1.62 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Adana Demirspor vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 54 outings, Adana Demirspor have picked up 0.96 PPG on a 12W 16D 26L record — L-L-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Başakşehir's form line: 24W 12D 18L from 54 games, 1.56 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-D.
Put side by side, Başakşehir are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Adana Demirspor.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Adana Demirspor have posted 1.26 PPG from their last 27 home games (10W 4D 13L).
On the road, Başakşehir have gone 10W 5D 12L from their last 27 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Adana Demirspor are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.56 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Adana Demirspor have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Adana Demirspor
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
Adana Demirspor (Home) vs Başakşehir (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Adana Demirspor
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
❓ Adana Demirspor vs Başakşehir Form FAQs
What form are Adana Demirspor and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Adana Demirspor have gone 12W 16D 26L in their last 54 games (0.96 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 24W 12D 18L in their last 54 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Adana Demirspor at home or Başakşehir away?
Başakşehir's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Adana Demirspor at home: 1.26 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 25 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 May 2024, when Başakşehir won Adana Demirspor 2-6 Başakşehir.
Adana Demirspor's record when hosting Başakşehir specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Adana Demirspor
1
Draws
5
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Adana Demirspor vs Başakşehir H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Başakşehir?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Adana Demirspor have won 2, Başakşehir have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Adana Demirspor and Başakşehir last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 May 2025: Başakşehir 2-3 Adana Demirspor.
Who has won more matches between Adana Demirspor and Başakşehir?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Adana Demirspor 56%, Başakşehir 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Adana Demirspor) and 44% (Başakşehir). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Adana Demirspor have failed to score in 26% of games; Başakşehir in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Adana Demirspor home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Adana Demirspor vs Başakşehir Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Adana Demirspor and Başakşehir matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Adana Demirspor's recent matches and 44% of Başakşehir's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Adana Demirspor and Başakşehir matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Adana Demirspor's matches and 44% of Başakşehir's.
Do Adana Demirspor and Başakşehir matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Adana Demirspor's recent matches and 67% of Başakşehir's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Başakşehir edge out Adana Demirspor 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Adana Demirspor 0-1 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 18, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 1.42 xG and Başakşehir 1.62 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Adana Demirspor fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 0.78 / defence 1.42 against Başakşehir attack 0.96 / defence 1.11, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 32% | Draw 28% | Başakşehir 40%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 61%, Başakşehir 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Başakşehir's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Başakşehir arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.96. That form edge translated into the three points. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line. Başakşehir (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.