Tightly Contested Predictions
Most evenly matched fixtures by predicted outcome probabilities — Monday 3 October 2022
These fixtures have the smallest gap between home and away win probability — meaning neither team has a significant edge. Our prediction model scores each fixture by how evenly the outcome probabilities are spread across all three results. Fixtures at the top are closest to a perfect 33% / 33% / 33% split, making them prime candidates for the draw and double-chance markets.
16 matches cleared our threshold on Monday 3 October 2022. The strongest reading belongs to IFK Varnamo vs Mjallby AIF at 108% in the Allsvenskan. The shortlist runs from 108% down to 65%, so the depth of the card matters as much as the headline pick.
The shortlist spans eight different competitions, so there is no single league driving the day.
Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Superettan · Sweden
Allsvenskan · Sweden
Allsvenskan · Sweden
Primeira Liga · Portugal
K League 1 · South-Korea
Super League 1 · Greece
Premier League · Russia
Süper Lig · Turkey
Serie A · Italy
Primera División · Chile
Ligue 2 · France
Ekstraklasa · Poland
Super League 1 · Greece
La Liga · Spain
Premier Division · Ireland
Premier League · England
Showing top 16 most evenly matched fixtures (draw probability ≥ 22%). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.
Related markets
Tightly Contested — common questions
What does the Tightly Contested market mean?
Tightly Contested settles on whether a match is close to a three-way coin toss between home, draw and away. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.
How does Fixture360 calculate tightly contested probability?
Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The outcome evenness shown here is how evenly the model spreads probability across all three results. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.
How many fixtures qualified for Tightly Contested on Monday 3 October 2022?
16 fixtures met the criteria, led by IFK Varnamo vs Mjallby AIF at 108% outcome evenness.
Which fixtures appear on this page?
Fixtures with the smallest spread between home, draw and away probability, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.
How accurate are these tightly contested predictions?
Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.
Are these predictions betting tips?
No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.