Trelleborg 1-3 Jonkopings Sodra – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jonkopings Sodra at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trelleborg vs Jonkopings Sodra fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 25 as Trelleborg welcome Jonkopings Sodra to Vångavallen. Kick-off is set for Monday 3 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Trelleborg have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Trelleborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trelleborg at Vångavallen this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jonkopings Sodra — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jonkopings Sodra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Jonkopings Sodra have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Trelleborg at 1.70 PPG versus Jonkopings Sodra's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Trelleborg register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Jonkopings Sodra in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Trelleborg, 1 for Jonkopings Sodra and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2022, ended 3–2 with Trelleborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Trelleborg in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Jonkopings Sodra in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Trelleborg 67% and Jonkopings Sodra 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trelleborg 57% | Jonkopings Sodra 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trelleborg 1.27 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trelleborg attack 0.993 / defence 1.148 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.893 / defence 0.879. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.266. Data: 54 Trelleborg games / 54 Jonkopings Sodra games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trelleborg 35% | Draw 28% | Jonkopings Sodra 37%. Fair-value odds: Trelleborg 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Jonkopings Sodra 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jonkopings Sodra as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jonkopings Sodra offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Trelleborg 70% | Jonkopings Sodra 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trelleborg vs Jonkopings Sodra | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Vångavallen • Kick-off: Monday 3 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trelleborg 35% | Draw 28% | Jonkopings Sodra 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Trelleborg 1.27 / Jonkopings Sodra 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Trelleborg attack 0.993 / def 1.148 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.893 / def 0.879 | league avg home 1.454 / away 1.266 • Poisson stance: Jonkopings Sodra (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Trelleborg xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Jonkopings Sodra xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trelleborg vs Jonkopings Sodra kick off?
Trelleborg vs Jonkopings Sodra kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 3 October 2022 at Vångavallen.
What was the final score in Trelleborg vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Trelleborg 1 - 3 Jonkopings Sodra.
Where is Trelleborg vs Jonkopings Sodra being played?
The match is being played at Vångavallen.
What competition is Trelleborg vs Jonkopings Sodra part of?
Trelleborg vs Jonkopings Sodra is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Trelleborg vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our statistical model gives Trelleborg a 35% chance of winning, Jonkopings Sodra a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Jonkopings Sodra the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trelleborg vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Trelleborg and Jonkopings Sodra will score (BTTS).
Will Trelleborg vs Jonkopings Sodra have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Jonkopings Sodra?
Record (3 meetings): Trelleborg 1W | Draws 1 | Jonkopings Sodra 1W.
What form are Trelleborg and Jonkopings Sodra in?
Trelleborg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Jonkopings Sodra (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Trelleborg's attack at 0.99x the league average against Jonkopings Sodra's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jonkopings Sodra's attack versus Trelleborg's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jonkopings Sodra Win
35%
2.83
28%
3.56
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Trelleborg xG
Total xG
2.57
1.30
Jonkopings Sodra xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
10%
10.37
10%
9.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 10.0 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.6 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.0 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trelleborg vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Trelleborg and Jonkopings Sodra expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Trelleborg and 1.30 for Jonkopings Sodra, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Trelleborg vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Trelleborg's recent record stands at 22W 16D 16L from 54 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Trelleborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jonkopings Sodra, meanwhile, have gone 17W 14D 23L across 54 games — 1.20 PPG, with D-D-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Jonkopings Sodra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Trelleborg on 1.52 PPG, Jonkopings Sodra on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Trelleborg have managed 14W 6D 7L from 27 games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jonkopings Sodra's away record stands at 7W 8D 12L across 27 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trelleborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Trelleborg are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Jonkopings Sodra are on 1.22 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trelleborg have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trelleborg
Blended
Jonkopings Sodra
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trelleborg and Jonkopings Sodra in coming into this match?
Trelleborg have gone 22W 16D 16L in their last 54 games (1.52 PPG), while Jonkopings Sodra have gone 17W 14D 23L in their last 54 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trelleborg at home or Jonkopings Sodra away?
Trelleborg's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trelleborg at home: 1.78 PPG; Jonkopings Sodra away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Trelleborg's record when hosting Jonkopings Sodra specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Trelleborg
1
Draws
3
Jonkopings Sodra
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Jonkopings Sodra?
From 6 meetings on record, Trelleborg have won 2, Jonkopings Sodra have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Trelleborg and Jonkopings Sodra last play each other?
They last met on 28 September 2023, when Trelleborg 2-1 Jonkopings Sodra.
Who has won more matches between Trelleborg and Jonkopings Sodra?
Jonkopings Sodra have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Jonkopings Sodra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trelleborg 63%, Jonkopings Sodra 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Trelleborg) and 41% (Jonkopings Sodra).
On the defensive side: Jonkopings Sodra in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trelleborg home games / Jonkopings Sodra away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trelleborg play Jonkopings Sodra?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Trelleborg's games and 56% of Jonkopings Sodra's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Trelleborg vs Jonkopings Sodra usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Trelleborg's recent games and 41% of Jonkopings Sodra's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trelleborg and Jonkopings Sodra tend to score early?
Trelleborg have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Jonkopings Sodra in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jonkopings Sodra cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Trelleborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jonkopings Sodra beat Trelleborg 1-3 at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 25, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 1.27 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 1.30 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Jonkopings Sodra outscored their 1.30 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 0.99 / defence 1.15 against Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.89 / defence 0.88, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 35% | Draw 28% | Jonkopings Sodra 37%, with Jonkopings Sodra to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trelleborg 57%, Jonkopings Sodra 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trelleborg's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Jonkopings Sodra's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trelleborg 1.52 PPG, Jonkopings Sodra 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jonkopings Sodra win broke the near-deadlock. Trelleborg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jonkopings Sodra (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.