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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Uthai Thani and Sukhothai FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Uthai Thani and Sukhothai FC finished level at 1-1 at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Uthai Thani 0.98 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.12 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Uthai Thani attack 0.76 / defence 1.15 against Sukhothai FC attack 0.80 / defence 0.85, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Uthai Thani 30% | Draw 34% | Sukhothai FC 37%, with Sukhothai FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Uthai Thani 44%, Sukhothai FC 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Uthai Thani's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Sukhothai FC's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Uthai Thani 1.12 PPG, Sukhothai FC 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights