Uthai Thani vs Sisaket United – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sisaket United at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Uthai Thani vs Sisaket United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 10 as Uthai Thani welcome Sisaket United to Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 27 November 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Uthai Thani stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Uthai Thani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Uthai Thani's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Sisaket United have recorded 3W 1D 3L from 7 outings — 1.43 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.43 per game is modest, conceding 1.86 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sisaket United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sisaket United away from home this season: 2W 0D 1L from 3 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.43 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Uthai Thani) versus 1.43 (Sisaket United). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Uthai Thani register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sisaket United in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Uthai Thani in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games.
Sisaket United in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Uthai Thani 86% and Sisaket United 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Uthai Thani 71% | Sisaket United 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Uthai Thani 1.62 xG and Sisaket United 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Uthai Thani attack 1.000 / defence 1.177 | Sisaket United attack 1.019 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.436. Data: 37 Uthai Thani games / 7 Sisaket United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Uthai Thani 36% | Draw 23% | Sisaket United 41%. Fair-value odds: Uthai Thani 2.78 | Draw 4.35 | Sisaket United 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.62 / 1.72) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sisaket United as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sisaket United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.34 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Uthai Thani 60% | Sisaket United 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Uthai Thani vs Sisaket United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 27 Nov 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Uthai Thani 36% | Draw 23% | Sisaket United 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG Uthai Thani 1.62 / Sisaket United 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Uthai Thani attack 1.000 / def 1.177 | Sisaket United attack 1.019 / def 1.126 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.436 • Poisson stance: Sisaket United (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Uthai Thani xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Sisaket United xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Uthai Thani vs Sisaket United kick off?
Uthai Thani vs Sisaket United is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Friday 27 November 2026 at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium.
Where is Uthai Thani vs Sisaket United being played?
The match is being played at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium.
What competition is Uthai Thani vs Sisaket United part of?
Uthai Thani vs Sisaket United is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Uthai Thani vs Sisaket United?
Our statistical model gives Uthai Thani a 36% chance of winning, Sisaket United a 41% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sisaket United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Uthai Thani vs Sisaket United?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Uthai Thani and Sisaket United will score (BTTS).
Will Uthai Thani vs Sisaket United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Sisaket United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Uthai Thani and Sisaket United in?
Uthai Thani (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Sisaket United (all comps): 3W-1D-3L in 7 | 1.43 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 1.86 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Uthai Thani's attack at 1.00x the league average against Sisaket United's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sisaket United's attack versus Uthai Thani's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sisaket United Win
36%
2.75
23%
4.34
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Uthai Thani xG
Total xG
3.34
1.72
Sisaket United xG
2.75
36%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.94
Clean Sheet
18%
5.60
20%
5.06
Win to Nil
6%
15.41
8%
12.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 6.1 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 9.9 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 8.0 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Uthai Thani vs Sisaket United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Uthai Thani and Sisaket United expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Uthai Thani and 1.72 for Sisaket United, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Uthai Thani vs Sisaket United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Uthai Thani's recent record stands at 3W 1D 3L from 7 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Uthai Thani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sisaket United, meanwhile, have gone 3W 1D 3L across 7 games — 1.43 PPG, with W-W-D-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Sisaket United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Uthai Thani on 1.43 PPG, Sisaket United on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Uthai Thani have managed 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.43 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Sisaket United's away record stands at 2W 0D 1L across 3 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.43 PPG overall record — Sisaket United travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sisaket United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Uthai Thani are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Sisaket United are on 1.43 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Uthai Thani have seen both teams score in 86% of their recent games; Sisaket United in 71%.
Last 7 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Uthai Thani
Early Season
Sisaket United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Uthai Thani and Sisaket United in coming into this match?
Uthai Thani have gone 3W 1D 3L in their last 7 games (1.43 PPG), while Sisaket United have gone 3W 1D 3L in their last 7 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Uthai Thani at home or Sisaket United away?
Sisaket United's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Uthai Thani at home: 1.00 PPG; Sisaket United away: 2.00 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Sisaket United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Uthai Thani at 100%, Sisaket United at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Uthai Thani and 67% for Sisaket United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sisaket United in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Uthai Thani home games / Sisaket United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Uthai Thani play Sisaket United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Uthai Thani's games and 67% of Sisaket United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Uthai Thani vs Sisaket United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Uthai Thani's matches and 67% of Sisaket United's.
Do Uthai Thani and Sisaket United tend to score early?
Uthai Thani have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Sisaket United in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.