Uthai Thani 3-1 Rayong FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Uthai Thani at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Uthai Thani vs Rayong FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Uthai Thani host Rayong FC at Uthai Thani Province Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 15 September 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Uthai Thani stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Uthai Thani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Uthai Thani at Uthai Thani Province Stadium this season: 2W 7D 1L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Rayong FC — All Games: 1W 2D 2L from 5 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Rayong FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Uthai Thani are in the better shape of the two on current Thai League 1 data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Uthai Thani register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Rayong FC in 60% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Uthai Thani in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Rayong FC in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 40% of cases; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Uthai Thani 60% and Rayong FC 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Uthai Thani 20% | Rayong FC 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Uthai Thani 1.61 xG and Rayong FC 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Uthai Thani attack 0.904 / defence 0.996 | Rayong FC attack 0.757 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.682 / away 1.243. Data: 35 Uthai Thani games / 5 Rayong FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Uthai Thani 50% | Draw 32% | Rayong FC 18%. Fair-value odds: Uthai Thani 2.00 | Draw 3.12 | Rayong FC 5.56. Uthai Thani hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Uthai Thani as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Uthai Thani offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Uthai Thani 70% | Rayong FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Uthai Thani vs Rayong FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Uthai Thani Province Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Sep 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Uthai Thani 50% | Draw 32% | Rayong FC 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Uthai Thani 1.61 / Rayong FC 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Uthai Thani attack 0.904 / def 0.996 | Rayong FC attack 0.757 / def 1.059 | league avg home 1.682 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Uthai Thani (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Uthai Thani xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Rayong FC xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Uthai Thani vs Rayong FC kick off?
Uthai Thani vs Rayong FC kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 15 September 2024 at Uthai Thani Province Stadium.
What was the final score in Uthai Thani vs Rayong FC?
Uthai Thani 3 - 1 Rayong FC.
Where is Uthai Thani vs Rayong FC being played?
The match is being played at Uthai Thani Province Stadium.
What competition is Uthai Thani vs Rayong FC part of?
Uthai Thani vs Rayong FC is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Uthai Thani vs Rayong FC?
Our statistical model gives Uthai Thani a 50% chance of winning, Rayong FC a 18% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Uthai Thani the favourite.
Will both teams score in Uthai Thani vs Rayong FC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Uthai Thani and Rayong FC will score (BTTS).
Will Uthai Thani vs Rayong FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Rayong FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Uthai Thani and Rayong FC in?
Uthai Thani (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-D-W. Rayong FC (all comps): 1W-2D-2L in 5 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Uthai Thani's attack rating (0.90) and Rayong FC's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Rayong FC's attack versus Uthai Thani's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Uthai Thani Win
50%
2.02
32%
3.12
18%
5.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Uthai Thani xG
Total xG
2.55
0.94
Rayong FC xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
5.44
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
20%
5.01
Win to Nil
19%
5.14
4%
27.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 11.8 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.5 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Uthai Thani vs Rayong FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Uthai Thani and Rayong FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Uthai Thani and 0.94 for Rayong FC, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Uthai Thani vs Rayong FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Uthai Thani's recent record stands at 1W 3D 1L from 5 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Uthai Thani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Rayong FC, meanwhile, have gone 1W 2D 2L across 5 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-W-D-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Rayong FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Uthai Thani on 1.20 PPG, Rayong FC on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Uthai Thani are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Rayong FC are on 0.80 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Uthai Thani have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Rayong FC in 60%.
Last 5 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Uthai Thani
Early Season
Rayong FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Uthai Thani and Rayong FC in coming into this match?
Uthai Thani have gone 1W 3D 1L in their last 5 games (1.20 PPG), while Rayong FC have gone 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Uthai Thani and Rayong FC runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2026, when Uthai Thani won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Uthai Thani's record when hosting Rayong FC specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Uthai Thani
0
Draws
1
Rayong FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Rayong FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Uthai Thani have won 3, Rayong FC have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Uthai Thani and Rayong FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Uthai Thani 4-1 Rayong FC.
Who has won more matches between Uthai Thani and Rayong FC?
Uthai Thani have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Rayong FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Uthai Thani 60%, Rayong FC 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Uthai Thani and 40% for Rayong FC.
On the defensive side: Uthai Thani have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Uthai Thani home games / Rayong FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Uthai Thani play Rayong FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Uthai Thani's games and 60% of Rayong FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Uthai Thani vs Rayong FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Uthai Thani's recent games and 40% of Rayong FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Uthai Thani and Rayong FC tend to score early?
Uthai Thani have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Rayong FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Uthai Thani cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Rayong FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Uthai Thani beat Rayong FC 3-1 at Uthai Thani Province Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Uthai Thani 1.61 xG and Rayong FC 0.94 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Uthai Thani beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Uthai Thani attack 0.90 / defence 1.00 against Rayong FC attack 0.76 / defence 1.06, drawn from 35/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Uthai Thani 50% | Draw 32% | Rayong FC 18%, with Uthai Thani to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Uthai Thani 20%, Rayong FC 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Uthai Thani's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Rayong FC's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Uthai Thani 1.20 PPG, Rayong FC 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Uthai Thani win broke the near-deadlock. Uthai Thani scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Rayong FC shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.