🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Uthai Thani at 41%, yet in-form Ratchaburi provide a compelling counter-argument — this Uthai Thani vs Ratchaburi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Uthai Thani and Ratchaburi meet at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 April 2027 at 12:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Uthai Thani have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Uthai Thani haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Uthai Thani's home record at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Uthai Thani are significantly better at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Ratchaburi (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Ratchaburi haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Ratchaburi's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Ratchaburi arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H Analysis

Across the last 6 meetings, Ratchaburi have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Uthai Thani's 1, with 1 draws in the mix.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 1–3 with Ratchaburi winning.

It is worth noting that Ratchaburi have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading & In-Play

Uthai Thani — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 30% of games.

Ratchaburi — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Uthai Thani 60% versus Ratchaburi 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Uthai Thani 47% | Ratchaburi 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Uthai Thani 1.43 xG and Ratchaburi 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Uthai Thani attack 1.014 / defence 0.971 | Ratchaburi attack 1.190 / defence 0.890. League average goals — home 1.585 / away 1.019. Data: 30 Uthai Thani games / 30 Ratchaburi games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Uthai Thani 41% | Draw 30% | Ratchaburi 29%. Fair-value odds: Uthai Thani 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Ratchaburi 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Uthai Thani are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ratchaburi (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Uthai Thani if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Uthai Thani 50% | Ratchaburi 70% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights