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Prediction vindicated as Ratchaburi edge out Uthai Thani 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ratchaburi beat Uthai Thani 2-3 at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Uthai Thani 0.98 xG and Ratchaburi 1.62 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Uthai Thani beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ratchaburi outscored their 1.62 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Uthai Thani attack 0.77 / defence 1.15 against Ratchaburi attack 1.26 / defence 0.83, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Uthai Thani 21% | Draw 30% | Ratchaburi 50%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Uthai Thani 42%, Ratchaburi 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Uthai Thani's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Ratchaburi's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Ratchaburi arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.08. Form held, and they took the win. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights