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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Ratchaburi defy the odds to beat Uthai Thani 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ratchaburi beat Uthai Thani 1-2 at Uthai Thani Province Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Uthai Thani 2.38 xG and Ratchaburi 1.02 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Uthai Thani fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Ratchaburi outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Uthai Thani attack 1.05 / defence 0.92 against Ratchaburi attack 0.92 / defence 1.37, drawn from 44/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Uthai Thani 67% | Draw 20% | Ratchaburi 14%, with Uthai Thani to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a Ratchaburi win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Uthai Thani 54%, Ratchaburi 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Uthai Thani's trading profile (44 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Ratchaburi's trading profile (44 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Uthai Thani 1.23 PPG, Ratchaburi 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ratchaburi win broke the near-deadlock. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights