🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Uthai Thani run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Prachuap.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Uthai Thani beat Prachuap 4-0 at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Uthai Thani 2.30 xG and Prachuap 1.38 xG, a combined 3.67. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Uthai Thani beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Prachuap landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Uthai Thani attack 1.36 / defence 1.06 against Prachuap attack 1.06 / defence 1.13, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Uthai Thani 56% | Draw 23% | Prachuap 20%, with Uthai Thani to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Uthai Thani 50%, Prachuap 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Uthai Thani's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Prachuap's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Uthai Thani 1.16 PPG, Prachuap 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Uthai Thani win broke the near-deadlock. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Prachuap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights