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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Uthai Thani cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Prachuap.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Uthai Thani beat Prachuap 3-1 at Uthai Thani Province Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Uthai Thani 1.30 xG and Prachuap 0.84 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Uthai Thani beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Uthai Thani attack 0.83 / defence 0.72 against Prachuap attack 0.97 / defence 0.96, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Uthai Thani 47% | Draw 30% | Prachuap 23%, with Uthai Thani to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Uthai Thani 55%, Prachuap 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Uthai Thani's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Prachuap's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Uthai Thani 1.23 PPG, Prachuap 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Uthai Thani win broke the near-deadlock. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm. Prachuap (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights