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Shock result as Port FC defy the odds to beat Uthai Thani 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Port FC beat Uthai Thani 0-1 at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Uthai Thani 1.70 xG and Port FC 1.13 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Uthai Thani fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Uthai Thani attack 1.21 / defence 0.92 against Port FC attack 1.15 / defence 0.96, drawn from 56/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Uthai Thani 48% | Draw 29% | Port FC 23%, with Uthai Thani to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Port FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Uthai Thani 48%, Port FC 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Uthai Thani's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Port FC's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.20. Form held, and they took the win. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.78 scoring average — below par going forward. Port FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights