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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Uthai Thani run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Nong Bua Pitchaya.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Uthai Thani beat Nong Bua Pitchaya 3-0 at Uthai Thani Province Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Uthai Thani 2.08 xG and Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.02 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Uthai Thani beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Nong Bua Pitchaya landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Uthai Thani attack 0.95 / defence 0.97 against Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.86 / defence 1.28, drawn from 49/20 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Uthai Thani 61% | Draw 21% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 18%, with Uthai Thani to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Uthai Thani 60%, Nong Bua Pitchaya 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Uthai Thani's trading profile (20 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (20 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Uthai Thani 1.25 PPG, Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Uthai Thani win broke the near-deadlock. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Nong Bua Pitchaya (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights