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Dominant Uthai Thani run riot with a 7-0 hammering of Nakhon Ratchasima FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Uthai Thani beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 7-0 at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Uthai Thani 1.61 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.15 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 7-0 for 7 actual goals. Uthai Thani beat their projection by 5.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Nakhon Ratchasima FC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Uthai Thani attack 1.00 / defence 1.18 against Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.80 / defence 1.10, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Uthai Thani 45% | Draw 31% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 24%, with Uthai Thani to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Uthai Thani 48%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Uthai Thani's trading profile (42 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (42 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Uthai Thani 1.14 PPG, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Uthai Thani win broke the near-deadlock. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) scored 7 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 7 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights