Uthai Thani 1-1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Uthai Thani at 49%, yet in-form Nakhon Ratchasima FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Uthai Thani vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 4 as Uthai Thani welcome Nakhon Ratchasima FC to Uthai Thani Province Stadium. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 28 August 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Uthai Thani have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Uthai Thani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Uthai Thani's home record at Uthai Thani Province Stadium: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nakhon Ratchasima FC stand at 2W 1D 0L from 3 Thai League 1 matches — 2.33 PPG. Last five: W W D. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 1.00. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Nakhon Ratchasima FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Nakhon Ratchasima FC are 0.93 PPG ahead (2.33 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Uthai Thani register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 100% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Uthai Thani in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Uthai Thani 33% and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Uthai Thani 0% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Uthai Thani 1.78 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Uthai Thani attack 0.941 / defence 0.993 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.957 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.801 / away 1.305. Data: 33 Uthai Thani games / 3 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Uthai Thani 49% | Draw 26% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 25%. Fair-value odds: Uthai Thani 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 4.00. Uthai Thani hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.78 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Uthai Thani are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Nakhon Ratchasima FC (2.33 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Uthai Thani offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Uthai Thani 60% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 100% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Uthai Thani vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Uthai Thani Province Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Aug 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Uthai Thani 49% | Draw 26% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Uthai Thani 1.78 / Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Uthai Thani attack 0.941 / def 0.993 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.957 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.801 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Uthai Thani (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Uthai Thani xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Uthai Thani vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kick off?
Uthai Thani vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kicked off at 12:00 on Wednesday 28 August 2024 at Uthai Thani Province Stadium.
What was the final score in Uthai Thani vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Uthai Thani 1 - 1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Where is Uthai Thani vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC being played?
The match is being played at Uthai Thani Province Stadium.
What competition is Uthai Thani vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC part of?
Uthai Thani vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Uthai Thani vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our statistical model gives Uthai Thani a 49% chance of winning, Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Uthai Thani the favourite.
Will both teams score in Uthai Thani vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Uthai Thani and Nakhon Ratchasima FC will score (BTTS).
Will Uthai Thani vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Uthai Thani and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in?
Uthai Thani (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 2W-1D-0L in 3 | 2.33 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Uthai Thani's attack at 0.94x the league average against Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.78 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack versus Uthai Thani's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (33/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Uthai Thani Win
49%
2.05
26%
3.85
25%
3.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Uthai Thani xG
Total xG
3.02
1.24
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
3.95
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
17%
5.92
Win to Nil
14%
7.10
4%
23.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 10.8 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Uthai Thani vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Uthai Thani and Nakhon Ratchasima FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Uthai Thani and 1.24 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Uthai Thani vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Uthai Thani come into this having played 3 games, going 0W 2D 1L for 0.67 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Uthai Thani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Nakhon Ratchasima FC sit at 2.33 PPG from 3 outings (2W 1D 0L), a run that reads W-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.66 PPG clear of Uthai Thani — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Uthai Thani are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Nakhon Ratchasima FC are on 1.67 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 100%.
Last 3 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Uthai Thani
Early Season
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Uthai Thani and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in coming into this match?
Uthai Thani have gone 0W 2D 1L in their last 3 games (0.67 PPG), while Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 2W 1D 0L in their last 3 (2.33 PPG).
Have Uthai Thani or Nakhon Ratchasima FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Uthai Thani have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Uthai Thani and Nakhon Ratchasima FC runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Nov 2025, when Uthai Thani won 7-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Uthai Thani's record when hosting Nakhon Ratchasima FC specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Uthai Thani
2
Draws
1
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Uthai Thani have won 1, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Uthai Thani and Nakhon Ratchasima FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0-0 Uthai Thani.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Uthai Thani at 33%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Uthai Thani and 67% for Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
On the defensive side: Uthai Thani keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Uthai Thani have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Uthai Thani home games / Nakhon Ratchasima FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Uthai Thani play Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Uthai Thani's games and 100% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Uthai Thani vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Uthai Thani's recent games and 67% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Uthai Thani and Nakhon Ratchasima FC tend to score early?
Uthai Thani have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Uthai Thani and Nakhon Ratchasima FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Uthai Thani Province Stadium, Regular Season - 4, as Uthai Thani and Nakhon Ratchasima FC drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Uthai Thani 1.78 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.24 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Uthai Thani attack 0.94 / defence 0.99 against Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.96 / defence 1.05, drawn from 33/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Uthai Thani 49% | Draw 26% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 25%, with Uthai Thani to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Uthai Thani 0%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Uthai Thani's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Nakhon Ratchasima FC arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.