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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Uthai Thani cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Muangthong United.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Uthai Thani beat Muangthong United 3-1 at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Uthai Thani 1.28 xG and Muangthong United 1.30 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Uthai Thani beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Uthai Thani attack 0.86 / defence 1.22 against Muangthong United attack 0.88 / defence 1.00, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Uthai Thani 33% | Draw 32% | Muangthong United 34%, with Muangthong United to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Uthai Thani win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Uthai Thani 45%, Muangthong United 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Uthai Thani's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Muangthong United's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Uthai Thani 1.10 PPG, Muangthong United 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Uthai Thani win broke the near-deadlock. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm. Muangthong United (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights