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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Uthai Thani and Muangthong United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Uthai Thani Province Stadium, Regular Season - 29, as Uthai Thani and Muangthong United drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Uthai Thani 1.72 xG and Muangthong United 1.01 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Uthai Thani attack 0.89 / defence 0.75 against Muangthong United attack 1.07 / defence 1.13, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Uthai Thani 53% | Draw 25% | Muangthong United 22%, with Uthai Thani to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Uthai Thani 52%, Muangthong United 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Uthai Thani's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Muangthong United's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Uthai Thani 1.21 PPG, Muangthong United 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Muangthong United (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights