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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Uthai Thani and Lamphun Warrior share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Uthai Thani Province Stadium, Regular Season - 30, as Uthai Thani and Lamphun Warrior drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Uthai Thani 1.21 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.81 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Uthai Thani attack 0.86 / defence 0.76 against Lamphun Warrior attack 0.85 / defence 0.84, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Uthai Thani 44% | Draw 32% | Lamphun Warrior 23%, with Uthai Thani to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Uthai Thani 51%, Lamphun Warrior 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Uthai Thani's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Uthai Thani 1.20 PPG, Lamphun Warrior 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights