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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Uthai Thani and Chonburi FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium, Regular Season - 7, as Uthai Thani and Chonburi FC drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Uthai Thani 1.34 xG and Chonburi FC 1.00 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Uthai Thani attack 0.78 / defence 1.15 against Chonburi FC attack 0.73 / defence 1.16, drawn from 36/6 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Uthai Thani 43% | Draw 31% | Chonburi FC 26%, with Uthai Thani to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Uthai Thani 50%, Chonburi FC 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Uthai Thani's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.

Chonburi FC's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Uthai Thani 0.33 PPG, Chonburi FC 0.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights