🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Buriram United defy the odds to beat Uthai Thani 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Buriram United beat Uthai Thani 0-1 at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Uthai Thani 1.87 xG and Buriram United 1.58 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Uthai Thani fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Uthai Thani attack 1.40 / defence 0.95 against Buriram United attack 1.36 / defence 0.88, drawn from 45/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Uthai Thani 43% | Draw 26% | Buriram United 31%, with Uthai Thani to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Buriram United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Uthai Thani 51%, Buriram United 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Uthai Thani's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Buriram United's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.20. Form held, and they took the win. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward. Buriram United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights