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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Uthai Thani and BG Pathum United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Uthai Thani Province Stadium, Regular Season - 27, as Uthai Thani and BG Pathum United drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Uthai Thani 1.37 xG and BG Pathum United 1.01 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Uthai Thani attack 0.93 / defence 0.76 against BG Pathum United attack 1.14 / defence 0.90, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Uthai Thani 45% | Draw 28% | BG Pathum United 28%, with Uthai Thani to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Uthai Thani 54%, BG Pathum United 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Uthai Thani's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

BG Pathum United's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, BG Pathum United arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights