Uthai Thani vs Ayutthaya FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ayutthaya FC at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Uthai Thani vs Ayutthaya FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 17 as Uthai Thani welcome Ayutthaya FC to Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 12 February 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Uthai Thani stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Uthai Thani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium, Uthai Thani have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Uthai Thani are significantly better at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Ayutthaya FC have recorded 3W 0D 7L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Ayutthaya FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Ayutthaya FC have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Uthai Thani 1.20 PPG, Ayutthaya FC 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Uthai Thani, 1 for Ayutthaya FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2026, ended 2–1 with Uthai Thani winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Uthai Thani trading profile (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Ayutthaya FC trading profile (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Uthai Thani 64% and Ayutthaya FC 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Uthai Thani 52% | Ayutthaya FC 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Uthai Thani 1.17 xG and Ayutthaya FC 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Uthai Thani attack 1.001 / defence 1.069 | Ayutthaya FC attack 0.923 / defence 0.917. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.228. Data: 33 Uthai Thani games / 33 Ayutthaya FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Uthai Thani 35% | Draw 28% | Ayutthaya FC 37%. Fair-value odds: Uthai Thani 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Ayutthaya FC 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ayutthaya FC as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ayutthaya FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Uthai Thani 50% | Ayutthaya FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Uthai Thani vs Ayutthaya FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 12 Feb 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Uthai Thani 35% | Draw 28% | Ayutthaya FC 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Uthai Thani 1.17 / Ayutthaya FC 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Uthai Thani attack 1.001 / def 1.069 | Ayutthaya FC attack 0.923 / def 0.917 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.228 • Poisson stance: Ayutthaya FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Uthai Thani xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Ayutthaya FC xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Uthai Thani vs Ayutthaya FC kick off?
Uthai Thani vs Ayutthaya FC is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Friday 12 February 2027 at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium.
Where is Uthai Thani vs Ayutthaya FC being played?
The match is being played at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium.
What competition is Uthai Thani vs Ayutthaya FC part of?
Uthai Thani vs Ayutthaya FC is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Uthai Thani vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our statistical model gives Uthai Thani a 35% chance of winning, Ayutthaya FC a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ayutthaya FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Uthai Thani vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Uthai Thani and Ayutthaya FC will score (BTTS).
Will Uthai Thani vs Ayutthaya FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Ayutthaya FC?
Record (3 meetings): Uthai Thani 2W | Draws 0 | Ayutthaya FC 1W.
What form are Uthai Thani and Ayutthaya FC in?
Uthai Thani (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Ayutthaya FC (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Uthai Thani's attack at 1.00x the league average against Ayutthaya FC's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ayutthaya FC's attack versus Uthai Thani's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ayutthaya FC Win
35%
2.85
28%
3.60
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Uthai Thani xG
Total xG
2.38
1.21
Ayutthaya FC xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
10%
9.58
12%
8.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 11.2 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.1 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Uthai Thani vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Uthai Thani and Ayutthaya FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Uthai Thani and 1.21 for Ayutthaya FC, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Uthai Thani vs Ayutthaya FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 33 outings, Uthai Thani have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 9W 10D 14L record — L-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Uthai Thani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ayutthaya FC's form line: 10W 8D 15L from 33 games, 1.15 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Ayutthaya FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Uthai Thani on 1.12 PPG, Ayutthaya FC on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Uthai Thani have posted 1.25 PPG from 16 outings (5W 5D 6L).
On the road, Ayutthaya FC have gone 7W 4D 5L from 16 away games — 1.56 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.15 PPG overall record — Ayutthaya FC travel well.
Goals in Recent Form
Uthai Thani are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Ayutthaya FC are on 1.15 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Uthai Thani have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Ayutthaya FC in 61%.
Last 33 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Uthai Thani
Early Season
Ayutthaya FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Uthai Thani and Ayutthaya FC in coming into this match?
Uthai Thani have gone 9W 10D 14L in their last 33 games (1.12 PPG), while Ayutthaya FC have gone 10W 8D 15L in their last 33 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Uthai Thani at home or Ayutthaya FC away?
Ayutthaya FC's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Uthai Thani at home: 1.25 PPG; Ayutthaya FC away: 1.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. The two were last together as recently as 18 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Uthai Thani have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Aug 2025, when Ayutthaya FC won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Uthai Thani
0
Draws
1
Ayutthaya FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Ayutthaya FC?
From 3 meetings on record, Uthai Thani have won 2, Ayutthaya FC have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Uthai Thani and Ayutthaya FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 September 2026, when Ayutthaya FC 1-2 Uthai Thani.
Who has won more matches between Uthai Thani and Ayutthaya FC?
Uthai Thani have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Ayutthaya FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Uthai Thani 62%, Ayutthaya FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Uthai Thani) and 44% (Ayutthaya FC).
On the defensive side: Ayutthaya FC in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Uthai Thani home games / Ayutthaya FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Uthai Thani play Ayutthaya FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Uthai Thani's games and 50% of Ayutthaya FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Uthai Thani vs Ayutthaya FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Uthai Thani's recent games and 44% of Ayutthaya FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Uthai Thani and Ayutthaya FC tend to score early?
Uthai Thani have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Ayutthaya FC in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.