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Dominant Ayutthaya FC run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Uthai Thani.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ayutthaya FC beat Uthai Thani 1-4 at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Uthai Thani 1.90 xG and Ayutthaya FC 0.97 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Uthai Thani fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Ayutthaya FC outscored their 0.97 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Uthai Thani attack 0.87 / defence 0.88 against Ayutthaya FC attack 0.83 / defence 1.26, drawn from 32/2 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Uthai Thani 58% | Draw 23% | Ayutthaya FC 18%, with Uthai Thani to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Ayutthaya FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Uthai Thani 50%, Ayutthaya FC 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Uthai Thani 0.50 PPG, Ayutthaya FC 0.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ayutthaya FC win broke the near-deadlock. Uthai Thani shipped 4 against a 3.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ayutthaya FC scored 4 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights