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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sukhothai FC and Uthai Thani share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sukhothai FC and Uthai Thani finished level at 1-1 at Thalay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 1.40 xG and Uthai Thani 0.89 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 0.77 / defence 0.88 against Uthai Thani attack 0.96 / defence 1.15, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 49% | Draw 27% | Uthai Thani 24%, with Sukhothai FC to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 52%, Uthai Thani 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sukhothai FC's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Uthai Thani's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sukhothai FC 1.15 PPG, Uthai Thani 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights