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Prediction vindicated as Sukhothai FC edge out Rayong FC 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sukhothai FC beat Rayong FC 2-1 at Thalay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 1.27 xG and Rayong FC 0.91 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 0.80 / defence 0.86 against Rayong FC attack 0.92 / defence 1.05, drawn from 52/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 43% | Draw 33% | Rayong FC 24%, with Sukhothai FC to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 51%, Rayong FC 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sukhothai FC's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Rayong FC's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sukhothai FC 1.12 PPG, Rayong FC 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sukhothai FC win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights