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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Sukhothai FC edge out Port FC 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sukhothai FC beat Port FC 1-0 at Thalay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 1.68 xG and Port FC 1.47 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Port FC landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 1.02 / defence 1.05 against Port FC attack 1.02 / defence 0.97, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 42% | Draw 26% | Port FC 32%, with Sukhothai FC to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 61%, Port FC 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sukhothai FC's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Port FC's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.16. Form was overturned, with Sukhothai FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line. Port FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights